increases (or decreases) in space-s

increases (or decreases) in space-system procurement programs. Tracing the impact of such changes throughout the economy by hand would be impossible. The input-output matrix and the com-puter make such analysis feasible. Even the largest of the input-output matrices involves aggre-gation in order to make computation feasible. Such aggregation may limit the usefulness of this type of analysis for particular industries or products. The development of useful matrices is necessarily a laborious, time-consuming task. However, as is often the case in developing models of large, complex systems, the proc-. ess itself can be valuable in understanding the overall system and the interrelationships among its parts.
Statistics and Probability One of the most firmly established analytical techniques for man-agement revolves around the use of statistical irtference. Quite often the term statistics is considered primarily in terms of data, or at most in terms of descriptive statistics. However, modern sta-tistical techniques provide a useful tool for the decision-making process, primarily in the realms of estimation and hypothesis testing. This connotation is represented in the following: It is the purpose of statistical analysis to provide methods of treat-ing data so that the maximum information can be obtained with a predetermined risk of drawing false conclusions. No method of analysis can extract more information from a set of data than is con-tained therein, and no method, statistical or otherwise, can draw conclusions from experimental data with zero risk of error. The use of statistical methods is based on a reasonable assumption that -- accepted principles of logic and probability should produce correct answers more often than guessing." The use of sampling is widespread; in some cases it is the only approach to obtaining data for decision making, and in other cases it is the only feasible approach in terms of time and/or money. Many managerial decisions involve assumptions concern-ing the probability of future events, particularly those which are not controllable. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of probability theory and its application in decision making. For example, the probability of certain outcomes must be related to the importance of those outcomes in order to provide meaningful in-
7"E. Bright Wilson, Jr., An Introduction to Scientific Rescarcl., McGraw-Mill Book Company, New York, 1952, p. 57.

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meningkat (atau menurun) dalam program pengadaan sistem ruang. Menelusuri dampak dari perubahan tersebut seluruh perekonomian dengan tangan akan mustahil. Matriks input-output dan com-puter membuat analisis semacam itu layak. Bahkan terbesar matriks input-output melibatkan aggre-gation untuk membuat perhitungan yang layak. Agregasi tersebut mungkin membatasi kegunaan dari jenis analisis untuk industri tertentu atau produk. Pengembangan matriks berguna tentu adalah tugas yang rumit, memakan waktu. Namun, seperti yang sering terjadi dalam mengembangkan model sistem besar, kompleks, proc-. ESS itu sendiri dapat berharga dalam memahami sistem secara keseluruhan dan antar-hubungan antara bagiannya. Statistics and Probability One of the most firmly established analytical techniques for man-agement revolves around the use of statistical irtference. Quite often the term statistics is considered primarily in terms of data, or at most in terms of descriptive statistics. However, modern sta-tistical techniques provide a useful tool for the decision-making process, primarily in the realms of estimation and hypothesis testing. This connotation is represented in the following: It is the purpose of statistical analysis to provide methods of treat-ing data so that the maximum information can be obtained with a predetermined risk of drawing false conclusions. No method of analysis can extract more information from a set of data than is con-tained therein, and no method, statistical or otherwise, can draw conclusions from experimental data with zero risk of error. The use of statistical methods is based on a reasonable assumption that -- accepted principles of logic and probability should produce correct answers more often than guessing." The use of sampling is widespread; in some cases it is the only approach to obtaining data for decision making, and in other cases it is the only feasible approach in terms of time and/or money. Many managerial decisions involve assumptions concern-ing the probability of future events, particularly those which are not controllable. Therefore it is important to understand the nature of probability theory and its application in decision making. For example, the probability of certain outcomes must be related to the importance of those outcomes in order to provide meaningful in-7" E. cerah Wilson, Jr., pengantar ilmiah Rescarcl., McGraw-Mill buku perusahaan, New York, 1952, MS 57.

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meningkat (atau menurun) dalam program pengadaan ruang-sistem. Menelusuri dampak perubahan tersebut seluruh perekonomian dengan tangan tidak mungkin. Input-output matriks dan com-puter membuat analisis tersebut layak. Bahkan yang terbesar dari matriks input-output melibatkan aggre-gation untuk membuat perhitungan layak. Agregasi tersebut dapat membatasi kegunaan dari jenis analisis untuk industri tertentu atau produk. Pengembangan matriks berguna tentu melelahkan, memakan waktu tugas. Namun, seperti yang sering terjadi dalam mengembangkan model besar, sistem yang kompleks, proc- tersebut. ess sendiri dapat berharga dalam memahami sistem secara keseluruhan dan keterkaitan di antara bagian-bagiannya.
Statistik dan Probabilitas Salah satu teknik analisis yang paling mapan untuk manusia-pengelolaan berkisar pada penggunaan irtference statistik. Cukup sering statistik jangka dianggap terutama dalam hal data, atau paling dalam hal statistik deskriptif. Namun, teknik sta-tistical modern yang menyediakan alat yang berguna untuk proses pengambilan keputusan, terutama di alam estimasi dan pengujian hipotesis. Konotasi ini diwakili sebagai berikut: Ini adalah tujuan analisis statistik untuk menyediakan metode data memperlakukan-ing sehingga informasi maksimum dapat diperoleh dengan risiko yang telah ditetapkan menarik kesimpulan yang salah. Tidak ada metode analisis dapat mengekstrak informasi lebih lanjut dari satu set data daripada con-tained dalamnya, dan tidak ada metode, statistik atau sebaliknya, dapat menarik kesimpulan dari data eksperimen dengan risiko nol kesalahan. Penggunaan metode statistik didasarkan pada asumsi yang masuk akal bahwa - prinsip diterima logika dan probabilitas harus menghasilkan jawaban yang benar lebih sering daripada menebak "Penggunaan sampling luas;. Dalam beberapa kasus adalah satu-satunya pendekatan untuk mendapatkan data untuk pengambilan keputusan membuat, dan dalam kasus lain itu adalah satu-satunya pendekatan yang layak dalam hal waktu dan / atau uang Banyak keputusan manajerial melibatkan asumsi kekhawatiran-ing kemungkinan kejadian di masa depan, terutama mereka yang tidak dapat dikontrol. Oleh karena itu penting untuk memahami alam. teori probabilitas dan penerapannya dalam pengambilan keputusan. Sebagai contoh, probabilitas hasil tertentu harus berkaitan dengan pentingnya hasil tersebut untuk memberikan bermakna di-
7 "E. Terang Wilson, Jr., An Introduction to Scientific Rescarcl., McGraw-Mill Book Company, New York, 1952, p. 57.