The weak-form EMH assumes that current stock prices fully reflect all security market information,
including the historical sequence of prices, rates of return, trading volume data, and
other market-generated information, such as odd-lot transactions, block trades, and transactions
by exchange specialists. Because it assumes that current market prices already reflect all past
returns and any other security market information, this hypothesis implies that past rates of
return and other historical market data should have no relationship with future rates of return
(that is, rates of return should be independent). Therefore, this hypothesis contends that you
should gain little from using any trading rule that decides whether to buy or sell a security based
on past rates of return or any other past market data.
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