3. Result and Discussion 2. Scenari

3. Result and Discussion
2. Scenarios
Based on the risk assessment (Appendix A), different scenarios will be described in this chapter. The scenarios resulting from the risk assessment include de biggest risks that could cause an emergency in the Banger Polder.For four scenarios, the biggest risks are described and processed in this emergency response plan combined with the expected effects en possible measurements. The four scenarios that are described in this chapter are:
- Scenario 1 Failure pumping station
- Scenario 2 Heavy rainfall and high tide
- Scenario 3 Failure water barrier (dike/dam)
- Scenario 4 Water from the west side of the Banger Polder

3. Failure pumping station
i. Scenario description
The pumping station is one of the main components of the polder system. It is responsible for the water level control of the polder. When the pumping station fails, it would not be able to pump water out of the Banger area. This will cause an increase of the water level and eventually cause inundation.
Failure of the pumping station can be caused by several events as: fire, broken or jammed pumps, power/generator failure, broken inlet/outlet pipe or a component clogged with garbage.
Criteria for the emergency coordination are developed for when an emergency occurs. These criteria describe which circumstances have influence on an emergency. It depends on these circumstances how bad the situation is. The six circumstances and the reason why they have influence on the emergency are explained in this chapter:
- The seriousness of the failure of objects is determined on the basis of:
- The size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity)
- The actual weather forecast
- The actual storage capacity in the system
- The condition of the pumping station, date of construction
- Location mobile pumps
- The time it takes to repair the failure
The size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity)
The size of the failed drainage capacity depends on the condition of the pumps. Pumps can lose their drainage capacity because of jams, mechanical failure or power loss. It depends on the number off pumps that stopped working to know how much pumping capacity is lost.
The actual weather forecast
The weather forecast plays a huge factor on the seriousness of the failure. Heavy rainfall during the failure of an object could worsen the actual situation and could mean a huge increase to the disaster risk. If the pumping station fails before, during or right after a heavy rainfall event water levels may increase dramatically which will increase chances of flooding.
The actual storage capacity in the system
Water storage in the system is created by the retention basin and channels. The storage capacity depends on the actual water level and the riverbed level (dredged depth). The greater the storage capacity the greater the buffer when an object fails. Large storage capacity lowers the emergency risk when the object fails.
The condition of the pumping station, date of construction
It depends on the condition of the pumping station if the pumping station can function for the full 100%. If the inspection and maintenance is not done regularly or in a good way, failure of pumps can happen more often. The older the pumping station gets the more failures can occur (especially with bad inspection and maintenance).
Location mobile pumps
Mobile pumps owned by the BPBD can pump the water from the Banger polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur if there is a failure in the pumping station. The mobile pumps are only useful if they can be placed on the right location. For the location of the placement of the pump it is important that the place is attainable and low-laying so water flows automatically towards the mobile pump. The availability of mobile pumps still needs to be determined.
The time it takes to repair the failure
The time it will take to repair the failure, affects the seriousness of the failure. Longer repair time means higher vulnerability for emergency, because other variability’s (e.g. weather conditions) still have impact on the polder. The faster the failure is repaired the faster the level is risk in brought back to normal conditions.
ii. Emergency threat and coordination phases
Different phases are developed for the scenario ‘failure pumping station’ (shown in table 4.1) because the intensity in which the disaster occurs can vary. The scenario starts with phase 1: In this situation, no major risk or damage is expected. If situations get worse, the ‘emergency coordination’ goes to phase 2 or phase 3: In these situations emergency situations, with danger for the inhabitants of the Banger area (like flooding) could occur.
The fall out of the pumps is the only failure that will be discussed for this scenario. Other parts that could cause a failure like: the discharge pipe, inlet/basin, control room or the sheet piles are not taken into account. Failure of these components is less likely to happen, but total failure of one of these parts would have the same consequences as the total failure of the pumps. For the different phases the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ is taken in account, not the scenario ‘failure water barrier (dike/dam)’.
table 4.1Emergency coordination phases
Emergency coordination phase Criteria
1 - The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 1.5 till 3 m3/s;
- There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.
2 - The fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s;
- The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous, especially in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’;
- Evacuation will be more difficult.
3 - The fall out of all 6 pumps, pumping capacity is 0 m3/min;
- Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged;
- The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur and the Java Sea. A higher water level means faster inundation to the area and less time to evacuate. In combination with scenarios like ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ the situation will worsen, evacuation will become more difficult and the damage will be more.

iii. Measures
Emergency coordination phase 1
The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps decreases the pumping capacity with 1.5 till 3 m3/s. There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.

Emergency coordination phase 2
In this phase there is a fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, the pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s. The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous. In combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ risk levels can increase significantly. Because more water needs to be drained out of the polder, local floods could worsen the accessibility of the risk area which obstructs a quick repair.
Emergency coordination phase 3
All six pumps fall out (included the reserve pump), the pumping capacity of the pumping station is 0 m3/s. Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged because of floods, with high water level, if the pump cannot be repaired quickly or mobile pumps are not placed in an early stage or at the right location. The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur, the Java Sea and the amount of rainfall.

4. Heavy rainfall and high tide
i. Scenario description
Indonesia is located in a tropical climate. Especially in the rainy season (October-March) it can rain for a couple of days and very intense. The Banger Polder is designed for a rainstorm with an intensity that appears once every 10 years (T=10). The polder is tested with a simulation model with a T=10 rainfall curve.
Water in the Banger area will be pumped out of the polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur (east channel). When heavy rainfall is predicted, the pumping station in the Banger polder can start pumping before the rain will actually fall to create more water storage.
There still is a realistic chance on inundation in the polder. When heavy rainfall occurs simultaneously with high tide, the outflow of the Banjir Kanal Timur is limited and the water level of the Banjir Kanal Timur will rise. This makes it harder to pump water out of the polder.
Also, when the water level in the Banjir Kanal Timur will keep rising, it is possible that the water will flow over the dike and/or will damage the dike. When the dike will collapse or be damaged, there is overlapping with scenario 4.3. In that case the impact will be bigger.

ii. Emergency threat andcoordination phases
The emergency threat of this scenario can be determined by the following aspects:
- The predicted tide forecast
- The predicted weather
- Water storage in the system
- Additional threats like weak dikes
Each scenario can be divided in different phases, depending on the actual threat of the situation. The different phases of the scenario requires different emergency coordination’s. For the different emergency coordination’s, the following aspects are important:
- Actual tide (water level)
- Actual weather/rain
- Water table level (Banger polder, Banjir Kanal Timur and Java Sea)
- Maximum accepted water level Banger Polder (MSL)
This scenario consist of three emergency coordination phases, see table 4.2below.
table 4.2 Emergency coordination phases
Emergency coordination phase Criteria
1 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Expected high tide
- Maximum water level in Banger Polderis exceeded
- Local and small inundation
2 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Water level in Banger polder is dangerously high
- High tide
- Local and/or large floods
3 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Water Banjir Kanal Timur dangerously high
- High tide
- Many local inundations

3. Failure pumping station
i. Scenario description
The pumping station is one of the main components of the polder system. It is responsible for the water level control of the polder. When the pumping station fails, it would not be able to pump water out of the Banger area. This will cause an increase of the water level and eventually cause inundation. 
Failure of the pumping station can be caused by several events as: fire, broken or jammed pumps, power/generator failure, broken inlet/outlet pipe or a component clogged with garbage.
Criteria for the emergency coordination are developed for when an emergency occurs. These criteria describe which circumstances have influence on an emergency. It depends on these circumstances how bad the situation is. The six circumstances and the reason why they have influence on the emergency are explained in this chapter:
- The seriousness of the failure of objects is determined on the basis of:
- The size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity)
- The actual weather forecast
- The actual storage capacity in the system
- The condition of the pumping station, date of construction
- Location mobile pumps
- The time it takes to repair the failure
The size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity) 
The size of the failed drainage capacity depends on the condition of the pumps. Pumps can lose their drainage capacity because of jams, mechanical failure or power loss. It depends on the number off pumps that stopped working to know how much pumping capacity is lost.
The actual weather forecast
The weather forecast plays a huge factor on the seriousness of the failure. Heavy rainfall during the failure of an object could worsen the actual situation and could mean a huge increase to the disaster risk. If the pumping station fails before, during or right after a heavy rainfall event water levels may increase dramatically which will increase chances of flooding. 
The actual storage capacity in the system
Water storage in the system is created by the retention basin and channels. The storage capacity depends on the actual water level and the riverbed level (dredged depth). The greater the storage capacity the greater the buffer when an object fails. Large storage capacity lowers the emergency risk when the object fails. 
The condition of the pumping station, date of construction 
It depends on the condition of the pumping station if the pumping station can function for the full 100%. If the inspection and maintenance is not done regularly or in a good way, failure of pumps can happen more often. The older the pumping station gets the more failures can occur (especially with bad inspection and maintenance). 
Location mobile pumps
Mobile pumps owned by the BPBD can pump the water from the Banger polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur if there is a failure in the pumping station. The mobile pumps are only useful if they can be placed on the right location. For the location of the placement of the pump it is important that the place is attainable and low-laying so water flows automatically towards the mobile pump. The availability of mobile pumps still needs to be determined.
The time it takes to repair the failure
The time it will take to repair the failure, affects the seriousness of the failure. Longer repair time means higher vulnerability for emergency, because other variability’s (e.g. weather conditions) still have impact on the polder. The faster the failure is repaired the faster the level is risk in brought back to normal conditions. 
ii. Emergency threat and coordination phases
Different phases are developed for the scenario ‘failure pumping station’ (shown in table 4.1) because the intensity in which the disaster occurs can vary. The scenario starts with phase 1: In this situation, no major risk or damage is expected. If situations get worse, the ‘emergency coordination’ goes to phase 2 or phase 3: In these situations emergency situations, with danger for the inhabitants of the Banger area (like flooding) could occur.
The fall out of the pumps is the only failure that will be discussed for this scenario. Other parts that could cause a failure like: the discharge pipe, inlet/basin, control room or the sheet piles are not taken into account. Failure of these components is less likely to happen, but total failure of one of these parts would have the same consequences as the total failure of the pumps. For the different phases the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ is taken in account, not the scenario ‘failure water barrier (dike/dam)’. 
table 4.1Emergency coordination phases
Emergency coordination phase Criteria
1 - The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 1.5 till 3 m3/s;
- There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.
2 - The fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s;
- The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous, especially in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’;
- Evacuation will be more difficult.
3 - The fall out of all 6 pumps, pumping capacity is 0 m3/min; 
- Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged;
- The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur and the Java Sea. A higher water level means faster inundation to the area and less time to evacuate. In combination with scenarios like ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ the situation will worsen, evacuation will become more difficult and the damage will be more.

iii. Measures
Emergency coordination phase 1
The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps decreases the pumping capacity with 1.5 till 3 m3/s. There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.

Emergency coordination phase 2
In this phase there is a fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, the pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s. The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous. In combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ risk levels can increase significantly. Because more water needs to be drained out of the polder, local floods could worsen the accessibility of the risk area which obstructs a quick repair. 
Emergency coordination phase 3
All six pumps fall out (included the reserve pump), the pumping capacity of the pumping station is 0 m3/s. Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged because of floods, with high water level, if the pump cannot be repaired quickly or mobile pumps are not placed in an early stage or at the right location. The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur, the Java Sea and the amount of rainfall.

4. Heavy rainfall and high tide
i. Scenario description
Indonesia is located in a tropical climate. Especially in the rainy season (October-March) it can rain for a couple of days and very intense. The Banger Polder is designed for a rainstorm with an intensity that appears once every 10 years (T=10). The polder is tested with a simulation model with a T=10 rainfall curve. 
Water in the Banger area will be pumped out of the polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur (east channel). When heavy rainfall is predicted, the pumping station in the Banger polder can start pumping before the rain will actually fall to create more water storage.
There still is a realistic chance on inundation in the polder. When heavy rainfall occurs simultaneously with high tide, the outflow of the Banjir Kanal Timur is limited and the water level of the Banjir Kanal Timur will rise. This makes it harder to pump water out of the polder.
Also, when the water level in the Banjir Kanal Timur will keep rising, it is possible that the water will flow over the dike and/or will damage the dike. When the dike will collapse or be damaged, there is overlapping with scenario 4.3. In that case the impact will be bigger.

ii. Emergency threat andcoordination phases
The emergency threat of this scenario can be determined by the following aspects:
- The predicted tide forecast
- The predicted weather
- Water storage in the system
- Additional threats like weak dikes
Each scenario can be divided in different phases, depending on the actual threat of the situation. The different phases of the scenario requires different emergency coordination’s. For the different emergency coordination’s, the following aspects are important:
- Actual tide (water level)
- Actual weather/rain
- Water table level (Banger polder, Banjir Kanal Timur and Java Sea)
- Maximum accepted water level Banger Polder (MSL)
This scenario consist of three emergency coordination phases, see table 4.2below.
table 4.2 Emergency coordination phases
Emergency coordination phase Criteria
1 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Expected high tide
- Maximum water level in Banger Polderis exceeded
- Local and small inundation
2 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Water level in Banger polder is dangerously high
- High tide
- Local and/or large floods
3 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall
- Water Banjir Kanal Timur dangerously high
- High tide
- Many local inundations

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3. Result and Discussion 2. ScenariosBased on the risk assessment (Appendix A), different scenarios will be described in this chapter. The scenarios resulting from the risk assessment include de biggest risks that could cause an emergency in the Banger Polder.For four scenarios, the biggest risks are described and processed in this emergency response plan combined with the expected effects en possible measurements. The four scenarios that are described in this chapter are:- Scenario 1 Failure pumping station- Scenario 2 Heavy rainfall and high tide- Scenario 3 Failure water barrier (dike/dam)- Scenario 4 Water from the west side of the Banger Polder3. Failure pumping stationi. Scenario descriptionThe pumping station is one of the main components of the polder system. It is responsible for the water level control of the polder. When the pumping station fails, it would not be able to pump water out of the Banger area. This will cause an increase of the water level and eventually cause inundation. Failure of the pumping station can be caused by several events as: fire, broken or jammed pumps, power/generator failure, broken inlet/outlet pipe or a component clogged with garbage.Criteria for the emergency coordination are developed for when an emergency occurs. These criteria describe which circumstances have influence on an emergency. It depends on these circumstances how bad the situation is. The six circumstances and the reason why they have influence on the emergency are explained in this chapter:- The seriousness of the failure of objects is determined on the basis of:- The size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity)- The actual weather forecast- The actual storage capacity in the system- The condition of the pumping station, date of construction- Location mobile pumps- The time it takes to repair the failureThe size of failed drainage capacity (in m3 and % of total capacity) The size of the failed drainage capacity depends on the condition of the pumps. Pumps can lose their drainage capacity because of jams, mechanical failure or power loss. It depends on the number off pumps that stopped working to know how much pumping capacity is lost.The actual weather forecastThe weather forecast plays a huge factor on the seriousness of the failure. Heavy rainfall during the failure of an object could worsen the actual situation and could mean a huge increase to the disaster risk. If the pumping station fails before, during or right after a heavy rainfall event water levels may increase dramatically which will increase chances of flooding. The actual storage capacity in the systemWater storage in the system is created by the retention basin and channels. The storage capacity depends on the actual water level and the riverbed level (dredged depth). The greater the storage capacity the greater the buffer when an object fails. Large storage capacity lowers the emergency risk when the object fails. The condition of the pumping station, date of construction It depends on the condition of the pumping station if the pumping station can function for the full 100%. If the inspection and maintenance is not done regularly or in a good way, failure of pumps can happen more often. The older the pumping station gets the more failures can occur (especially with bad inspection and maintenance). Location mobile pumpsMobile pumps owned by the BPBD can pump the water from the Banger polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur if there is a failure in the pumping station. The mobile pumps are only useful if they can be placed on the right location. For the location of the placement of the pump it is important that the place is attainable and low-laying so water flows automatically towards the mobile pump. The availability of mobile pumps still needs to be determined.The time it takes to repair the failureThe time it will take to repair the failure, affects the seriousness of the failure. Longer repair time means higher vulnerability for emergency, because other variability’s (e.g. weather conditions) still have impact on the polder. The faster the failure is repaired the faster the level is risk in brought back to normal conditions. ii. Emergency threat and coordination phasesDifferent phases are developed for the scenario ‘failure pumping station’ (shown in table 4.1) because the intensity in which the disaster occurs can vary. The scenario starts with phase 1: In this situation, no major risk or damage is expected. If situations get worse, the ‘emergency coordination’ goes to phase 2 or phase 3: In these situations emergency situations, with danger for the inhabitants of the Banger area (like flooding) could occur.The fall out of the pumps is the only failure that will be discussed for this scenario. Other parts that could cause a failure like: the discharge pipe, inlet/basin, control room or the sheet piles are not taken into account. Failure of these components is less likely to happen, but total failure of one of these parts would have the same consequences as the total failure of the pumps. For the different phases the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ is taken in account, not the scenario ‘failure water barrier (dike/dam)’. table 4.1Emergency coordination phasesEmergency coordination phase Criteria1 - The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 1.5 till 3 m3/s;- There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.2 - The fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s;- The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous, especially in combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’;- Evacuation will be more difficult.3 - The fall out of all 6 pumps, pumping capacity is 0 m3/min; - Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged;- The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur and the Java Sea. A higher water level means faster inundation to the area and less time to evacuate. In combination with scenarios like ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ the situation will worsen, evacuation will become more difficult and the damage will be more. iii. MeasuresEmergency coordination phase 1The fall out of 1 or 2 pumps decreases the pumping capacity with 1.5 till 3 m3/s. There is no inundation suspected, water level stays the same or increases a little if it is in combination with the scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’.Emergency coordination phase 2In this phase there is a fall out of 3 or 4 pumps, the pumping capacity decreases with 4.5 till 6 m3/s. The water level will rise to a certain level which can be dangerous. In combination with scenario ‘heavy rainfall and high tide’ risk levels can increase significantly. Because more water needs to be drained out of the polder, local floods could worsen the accessibility of the risk area which obstructs a quick repair. Emergency coordination phase 3All six pumps fall out (included the reserve pump), the pumping capacity of the pumping station is 0 m3/s. Buildings, water barriers and infrastructure will be damaged because of floods, with high water level, if the pump cannot be repaired quickly or mobile pumps are not placed in an early stage or at the right location. The time to evacuate people depends on the height of the water level from the Banjir Kanal Timur, the Java Sea and the amount of rainfall. 4. Heavy rainfall and high tidei. Scenario descriptionIndonesia is located in a tropical climate. Especially in the rainy season (October-March) it can rain for a couple of days and very intense. The Banger Polder is designed for a rainstorm with an intensity that appears once every 10 years (T=10). The polder is tested with a simulation model with a T=10 rainfall curve. Water in the Banger area will be pumped out of the polder to the Banjir Kanal Timur (east channel). When heavy rainfall is predicted, the pumping station in the Banger polder can start pumping before the rain will actually fall to create more water storage.There still is a realistic chance on inundation in the polder. When heavy rainfall occurs simultaneously with high tide, the outflow of the Banjir Kanal Timur is limited and the water level of the Banjir Kanal Timur will rise. This makes it harder to pump water out of the polder.Also, when the water level in the Banjir Kanal Timur will keep rising, it is possible that the water will flow over the dike and/or will damage the dike. When the dike will collapse or be damaged, there is overlapping with scenario 4.3. In that case the impact will be bigger.ii. Emergency threat andcoordination phasesThe emergency threat of this scenario can be determined by the following aspects:- The predicted tide forecast- The predicted weather- Water storage in the system- Additional threats like weak dikesEach scenario can be divided in different phases, depending on the actual threat of the situation. The different phases of the scenario requires different emergency coordination’s. For the different emergency coordination’s, the following aspects are important:- Actual tide (water level)- Actual weather/rain- Water table level (Banger polder, Banjir Kanal Timur and Java Sea)- Maximum accepted water level Banger Polder (MSL)This scenario consist of three emergency coordination phases, see table 4.2below.table 4.2 Emergency coordination phasesEmergency coordination phase Criteria1 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall- Expected high tide- Maximum water level in Banger Polderis exceeded- Local and small inundation2 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall- Water level in Banger polder is dangerously high- High tide- Local and/or large floods3 - Heavy and prolonged rainfall- Water Banjir Kanal Timur dangerously high- High tide
- Many local inundations

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3. Hasil dan Pembahasan
2. Skenario
Berdasarkan penilaian risiko (Lampiran A), skenario yang berbeda akan dijelaskan dalam bab ini. Skenario yang dihasilkan dari penilaian risiko meliputi de risiko terbesar yang dapat menyebabkan keadaan darurat di Banger Polder.For empat skenario, risiko terbesar dijelaskan dan diproses dalam rencana tanggap darurat dikombinasikan dengan efek yang diharapkan en mungkin pengukuran. Empat skenario yang dijelaskan dalam bab ini adalah:
- Skenario 1 Kegagalan stasiun pompa
- Skenario 2 hujan deras dan air pasang
- Skenario penghalang air 3 Kegagalan (tanggul / bendungan)
- Skenario 4 Air dari sisi barat Polder Banger 3. Kegagalan memompa stasiun i. Deskripsi Skenario Stasiun pemompaan adalah salah satu komponen utama sistem polder. Hal ini bertanggung jawab untuk mengontrol tingkat air dari polder tersebut. Ketika stasiun pompa gagal, itu tidak akan mampu memompa air keluar dari daerah Banger. Hal ini akan menyebabkan peningkatan tingkat air dan akhirnya menyebabkan genangan. Kegagalan stasiun pompa dapat disebabkan oleh beberapa peristiwa seperti: kebakaran, pompa rusak atau macet, listrik / genset, rusak inlet / pipa outlet atau komponen tersumbat dengan sampah . Kriteria untuk koordinasi darurat dikembangkan untuk saat keadaan darurat terjadi. Kriteria ini menggambarkan keadaan yang memiliki pengaruh pada keadaan darurat. Hal ini tergantung pada keadaan ini seberapa buruk situasi ini. Enam keadaan dan alasan mengapa mereka memiliki pengaruh pada darurat dijelaskan dalam bab ini: - Keseriusan kegagalan obyek ditentukan atas dasar: - Ukuran kapasitas drainase gagal (di m3 dan% dari total kapasitas) - Ramalan cuaca yang sebenarnya - Kapasitas penyimpanan yang sebenarnya dalam sistem - Kondisi stasiun pemompaan, tanggal konstruksi - Lokasi pompa ponsel - Waktu yang diperlukan untuk memperbaiki kegagalan Ukuran kapasitas drainase gagal (di m3 dan% dari total Kapasitas) Ukuran kapasitas drainase gagal tergantung pada kondisi pompa. Pompa dapat kehilangan kapasitas drainase mereka karena kemacetan, kerusakan mekanis atau kerugian daya. Hal ini tergantung pada jumlah off pompa yang berhenti bekerja untuk mengetahui berapa kapasitas pemompaan hilang. Cuaca yang sebenarnya ramalan Ramalan cuaca memainkan faktor besar pada keseriusan kegagalan. Hujan deras selama kegagalan sebuah objek bisa memperburuk situasi aktual dan bisa berarti peningkatan yang sangat besar terhadap risiko bencana. Jika stasiun pemompaan gagal sebelum, selama atau setelah curah hujan ketinggian air event berat dapat meningkatkan secara dramatis yang akan meningkatkan kemungkinan banjir. Kapasitas penyimpanan aktual dalam sistem penyimpanan air dalam sistem yang dibuat oleh cekungan retensi dan saluran. Kapasitas penyimpanan tergantung pada tingkat air aktual dan tingkat dasar sungai (dikeruk kedalaman). Semakin besar kapasitas penyimpanan yang lebih besar buffer ketika sebuah objek gagal. Kapasitas penyimpanan yang besar menurunkan resiko darurat ketika objek gagal. Kondisi stasiun pemompaan, tanggal konstruksi Hal ini tergantung pada kondisi stasiun pompa jika stasiun pompa dapat berfungsi untuk penuh 100%. Jika pemeriksaan dan perawatan tidak dilakukan secara rutin atau dalam cara yang baik, kegagalan pompa dapat terjadi lebih sering. Semakin tua stasiun pemompaan mendapatkan lebih kegagalan dapat terjadi (terutama dengan pemeriksaan yang buruk dan perawatan). Lokasi ponsel pompa Ponsel pompa dimiliki oleh BPBD dapat memompa air dari polder Banger ke Banjir Kanal Timur jika ada kegagalan dalam memompa stasiun. Pompa ponsel hanya berguna jika mereka dapat ditempatkan pada lokasi yang tepat. Untuk lokasi penempatan pompa adalah penting bahwa tempat ini dapat dicapai dan rendah peletakan sehingga air mengalir secara otomatis ke arah pompa mobile. Ketersediaan pompa ponsel masih perlu ditentukan. Waktu yang diperlukan untuk memperbaiki kegagalan Waktu yang diperlukan untuk memperbaiki kegagalan, mempengaruhi keseriusan kegagalan. Lagi waktu perbaikan berarti kerentanan yang lebih tinggi untuk darurat, karena (misalnya kondisi cuaca) variabilitas lain masih memiliki dampak pada polder tersebut. Semakin cepat kegagalan diperbaiki lebih cepat tingkat risiko di dibawa kembali ke kondisi normal. ii. Ancaman darurat dan koordinasi fase fase yang berbeda dikembangkan untuk skenario 'kegagalan pompa stasiun' (ditampilkan dalam tabel 4.1) karena intensitas yang terjadi bencana dapat bervariasi. Skenario ini dimulai dengan fase 1: Dalam situasi ini, ada risiko utama atau kerusakan yang diharapkan. Jika situasi memburuk, para 'koordinasi darurat' pergi ke fase 2 atau 3 fase:. Dalam situasi situasi darurat ini, dengan bahaya bagi penduduk daerah Banger (seperti banjir) bisa terjadi Jatuhnya keluar dari pompa adalah satu-satunya kegagalan yang akan dibahas untuk skenario ini. Bagian lain yang dapat menyebabkan kegagalan seperti: pipa pembuangan, inlet / baskom, ruang kontrol atau tumpukan lembaran tidak diperhitungkan. Kegagalan komponen ini kurang mungkin terjadi, tapi gagal total satu dari bagian-bagian ini akan memiliki konsekuensi yang sama dengan kegagalan total pompa. Untuk fase yang berbeda skenario 'hujan deras dan air pasang' diambil dalam account, bukan skenario 'penghalang air kegagalan (tanggul / bendungan)'. meja 4.1Emergency fase koordinasi koordinasi Darurat Kriteria fase 1 - Penurunan dari 1 atau 2 pompa, kapasitas pompa menurun dengan 1,5 sampai 3 m3 / s; - Tidak ada genangan dicurigai, ketinggian air tetap sama atau meningkat sedikit jika dikombinasikan dengan skenario 'hujan deras dan air pasang'. 2 - Jatuhnya dari 3 atau 4 pompa, kapasitas pompa menurun dengan 4,5 sampai 6 m3 / s; - Tingkat air akan naik ke tingkat tertentu yang dapat berbahaya, terutama dalam kombinasi dengan skenario 'hujan deras dan air pasang'; - Evakuasi akan lebih sulit . 3 - Jatuhnya dari semua 6 pompa, pompa kapasitas 0 m3 / min; - Bangunan, hambatan air dan infrastruktur akan rusak; - Waktu untuk mengevakuasi orang tergantung pada ketinggian muka air dari Banjir Kanal Timur dan Laut Jawa. Tingkat air yang lebih tinggi berarti genangan lebih cepat ke daerah dan sedikit waktu untuk mengungsi. Dalam kombinasi dengan skenario seperti 'hujan deras dan air pasang' situasi akan memburuk, evakuasi akan menjadi lebih sulit dan kerusakan akan lebih. iii. Tindakan fase koordinasi Darurat 1 Jatuhnya dari 1 atau 2 pompa menurunkan kapasitas pemompaan dengan 1,5 sampai 3 m3 / s. Tidak ada genangan dicurigai, ketinggian air tetap sama atau meningkat sedikit jika dikombinasikan dengan skenario 'hujan deras dan air pasang yang tinggi'. fase koordinasi Darurat 2 Pada fase ini terjadi penurunan dari 3 atau 4 pompa, kapasitas memompa menurun dengan 4,5 sampai 6 m3 / s. Tingkat air akan naik ke tingkat tertentu yang dapat berbahaya. Dalam kombinasi dengan skenario 'hujan deras dan air pasang yang tinggi' tingkat risiko dapat meningkat secara signifikan. Karena lebih banyak air harus dikeringkan dari polder itu, banjir lokal bisa memperburuk aksesibilitas wilayah risiko yang menghalangi perbaikan cepat. fase koordinasi darurat 3 Semua enam pompa jatuh (termasuk pompa cadangan), kapasitas pemompaan memompa stasiun 0 m3 / s. Bangunan, hambatan air dan infrastruktur akan rusak karena banjir, dengan ketinggian air yang tinggi, jika pompa tidak dapat diperbaiki dengan cepat atau pompa mobile tidak ditempatkan dalam tahap awal atau di lokasi yang tepat. Waktu untuk mengevakuasi orang tergantung pada ketinggian muka air dari Banjir Kanal Timur, Laut Jawa dan jumlah curah hujan. 4. Hujan deras dan tinggi pasang i. Deskripsi skenario Indonesia terletak di iklim tropis. Terutama di musim hujan (Oktober-Maret) dapat hujan selama beberapa hari dan sangat intens. The Banger Polder dirancang untuk hujan badai dengan intensitas yang muncul sekali setiap 10 tahun (T = 10). Polder tersebut diuji dengan model simulasi dengan kurva curah hujan T = 10. Air di daerah Banger akan dipompa keluar dari polder ke Banjir Kanal Timur (channel timur). Ketika hujan deras diprediksi, stasiun pompa polder Banger di dapat mulai memompa sebelum hujan benar-benar akan jatuh untuk menciptakan lebih banyak penyimpanan air. Masih kesempatan realistis pada genangan di polder tersebut. Ketika hujan deras terjadi bersamaan dengan air pasang, arus keluar dari Banjir Kanal Timur terbatas dan tingkat air dari Banjir Kanal Timur akan naik. Hal ini membuat lebih sulit untuk memompa air keluar dari polder tersebut. Juga, ketika tingkat air di Banjir Kanal Timur akan terus meningkat, ada kemungkinan bahwa air akan mengalir di atas tanggul dan / atau akan merusak tanggul. Ketika tanggul akan runtuh atau rusak, ada tumpang tindih dengan skenario 4.3. Dalam hal dampaknya akan lebih besar. ii. Ancaman darurat fase andcoordination Ancaman darurat dari skenario ini dapat ditentukan oleh aspek-aspek berikut: - diprediksi perkiraan Gelombang - Cuaca diprediksi - penyimpanan air dalam sistem - ancaman tambahan seperti tanggul lemah Setiap skenario dapat dibagi dalam fase yang berbeda, tergantung pada ancaman aktual situasi. Fase yang berbeda dari skenario membutuhkan berbeda darurat koordinasi ini. Untuk yang berbeda darurat koordinasi itu, aspek-aspek berikut penting: - pasang Aktual (level air) - cuaca / hujan Aktual - tingkat meja air (Banger polder, Banjir Kanal Timur dan Laut Jawa) - ketinggian air diterima maksimum Polder Banger (MSL) ini Skenario terdiri dari fase koordinasi tiga darurat, lihat tabel 4.2below. tabel 4.2 Darurat fase koordinasi Kriteria tahap koordinasi Darurat 1 - Berat dan berkepanjangan hujan - Diharapkan pasang - permukaan air maksimum di Banger Polderis melebihi - lokal dan kecil genangan 2 - Berat dan berkepanjangan curah hujan - tingkat air di polder Banger adalah sangat tinggi - pasang tinggi - lokal dan / atau banjir besar 3 - Hujan deras dan berkepanjangan - Air Banjir Kanal Timur sangat tinggi - pasang Tinggi - Banyak genangan lokal

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