EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS ANDTHE STRUCTU

EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS AND
THE STRUCTURE OF QUALIFICATIONS
Medium-term employment prospects are very uncertain. The high unemploy-ment rates during the 1974/75 recession have subsequently fallen only slightly (except in the United States). Even in the event of a moderate upturn in consumer demand and production there is no assurance in the medium term of a strong upsurge in the de mand for labour and a consequential substantial fall in aggregate unemployment, notably as concerns young people who are entering the workforce in increasing numbers and for whom the recruitment cost is higher. In such a perspective the evolu¬tion of the pattern of labour demand is hard to predict. In some Member countries planners are obliged to describe medium-term prospects in a very summary fashion, to relate the potential supply of jobs to available manpower and to adjust the zones of balance and imbalance. It may be assumed that the pattern of demand for skilled work (including the attitudes and expectations of the prospective employers) will not change significantly in the medium term. To the extent that a large majority of individuals are in work or in the education system and that the trends observed in recent years (increase in employment for women, rising educational levels of school leavers) are go¬ing to continue, the nature of the demand remains very uncertain. In recent years most new jobs (92 per cent in the United States between 1970 and 1975 for instance) have been created in the tertiary sector. The slight increase or stagnation in industrial jobs is not to be explained uniquely by the current situation and is likely to continue in the medium term". It is structural in origin and stems particularly from the saturation of branches with heavy concentrations of labour, such as the motor car and building in¬dustries, and the increasing competition from a number of developing countries. In France, for example, planners believe that the employment of manual workers will stagnate as a result of a falling demand for unskilled labour and of a slight increase in the demand for skilled workers. At the technician level' an excess demand is expected". In the United Kingdom, employment forecasts up to 1981 anticipate a marked decline in jobs in primary industries, building construction and" labouring" ='. It is in the tertiary sector, which constitutes -50 to 60 per cent of the work force, that the biggest increase in manpower demand is foreseen. Employment forecasts for this diverse sector are especially problematic. The potential for job creation is subject to Varying constraints according to the sub-sector. Thus, commercial services are very sensitive to external changes, as well as being subjected to rationalisation schemes and productivity gains. Public services are dependent not only on budgetary policies and fluctuations in public expenditures but also on political and social pressures. Certain branches of the public sector, such as teaching and research, are near saturation and, in several, surpluses are already appearing. Additional jobs must, moreover, absorb as a priority categories of non-established personnel and allow for the reallocation of posts to people already within an organisation. In many countries, projections of supply and demand reveal a surplus of post-secondary qualifications which, in the case of the United States, could be of the order of one million during the period 1974¬198522. Such projections highlight the sharp fall in employment prospects for univer¬sity graduates, above all in the public sector. According to the German study cited earlier, the situation noted in the past should change radically. As a result of budgetary constraints, low demand for teachers and researchers and— in certain states or local authority areas—the volume of public debt, the future expansion of public employment is likely to be very limited. Replacement demand is expected to absorb only about 15 per cent of university graduates between 1975 and 1985, com¬pared with 30 per cent in 1970-75. The study indicates that less than half of these graduates will find an " adequate" job in either the public or the private sector in the next 10 years, with the others having to content themselves with work at a lower level.
Different prospects are seen for Sweden, however, where after a period of teacher shortage (1965-70), followed by excess (1970-75), a more balanced situation is now forecast, but not excluding the possibility of both shortages in some sectors (e.g. health, engineering) and a surfeit of candidates in others (e.g. education)`'. Assumptions about the growth of the service sector, a major determining factor in calculating needs, are clearly extremely uncertain. However, the existence of dis¬crepancies between aspirations and the jobs on offer is recognised. In order to narrow these discrepancies there has been an examination of the possibilities for mobility and substitution which could be created by measures affecting recruitment, career guid¬ance, work-study schemes and recurrent education or financial incentives.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

PROSPEK PEKERJAAN DANSTRUKTUR KUALIFIKASIMedium-term employment prospects are very uncertain. The high unemploy-ment rates during the 1974/75 recession have subsequently fallen only slightly (except in the United States). Even in the event of a moderate upturn in consumer demand and production there is no assurance in the medium term of a strong upsurge in the de mand for labour and a consequential substantial fall in aggregate unemployment, notably as concerns young people who are entering the workforce in increasing numbers and for whom the recruitment cost is higher. In such a perspective the evolu¬tion of the pattern of labour demand is hard to predict. In some Member countries planners are obliged to describe medium-term prospects in a very summary fashion, to relate the potential supply of jobs to available manpower and to adjust the zones of balance and imbalance. It may be assumed that the pattern of demand for skilled work (including the attitudes and expectations of the prospective employers) will not change significantly in the medium term. To the extent that a large majority of individuals are in work or in the education system and that the trends observed in recent years (increase in employment for women, rising educational levels of school leavers) are go¬ing to continue, the nature of the demand remains very uncertain. In recent years most new jobs (92 per cent in the United States between 1970 and 1975 for instance) have been created in the tertiary sector. The slight increase or stagnation in industrial jobs is not to be explained uniquely by the current situation and is likely to continue in the medium term". It is structural in origin and stems particularly from the saturation of branches with heavy concentrations of labour, such as the motor car and building in¬dustries, and the increasing competition from a number of developing countries. In France, for example, planners believe that the employment of manual workers will stagnate as a result of a falling demand for unskilled labour and of a slight increase in the demand for skilled workers. At the technician level' an excess demand is expected". In the United Kingdom, employment forecasts up to 1981 anticipate a marked decline in jobs in primary industries, building construction and" labouring" ='. It is in the tertiary sector, which constitutes -50 to 60 per cent of the work force, that the biggest increase in manpower demand is foreseen. Employment forecasts for this diverse sector are especially problematic. The potential for job creation is subject to Varying constraints according to the sub-sector. Thus, commercial services are very sensitive to external changes, as well as being subjected to rationalisation schemes and productivity gains. Public services are dependent not only on budgetary policies and fluctuations in public expenditures but also on political and social pressures. Certain branches of the public sector, such as teaching and research, are near saturation and, in several, surpluses are already appearing. Additional jobs must, moreover, absorb as a priority categories of non-established personnel and allow for the reallocation of posts to people already within an organisation. In many countries, projections of supply and demand reveal a surplus of post-secondary qualifications which, in the case of the United States, could be of the order of one million during the period 1974¬198522. Such projections highlight the sharp fall in employment prospects for univer¬sity graduates, above all in the public sector. According to the German study cited earlier, the situation noted in the past should change radically. As a result of budgetary constraints, low demand for teachers and researchers and— in certain states or local authority areas—the volume of public debt, the future expansion of public employment is likely to be very limited. Replacement demand is expected to absorb only about 15 per cent of university graduates between 1975 and 1985, com¬pared with 30 per cent in 1970-75. The study indicates that less than half of these graduates will find an " adequate" job in either the public or the private sector in the next 10 years, with the others having to content themselves with work at a lower level.Prospek yang berbeda terlihat untuk Swedia, namun, mana setelah periode guru kekurangan (1965-70), diikuti oleh kelebihan (1970-75), situasi yang lebih seimbang sekarang diperkirakan, tetapi tidak termasuk kemungkinan kedua kekurangan dalam beberapa sektor (misalnya Kesehatan, teknik) dan kejenuhan kandidat lain (misalnya pendidikan)''. Asumsi tentang pertumbuhan sektor jasa, faktor penentu utama dalam menghitung kebutuhan, tidak jelas sangat yakin. Namun, keberadaan dis¬crepancies antara aspirasi dan pekerjaan yang ditawarkan diakui. Untuk mempersempit perbedaan ini ada pemeriksaan kemungkinan untuk mobilitas dan substitusi yang dapat diciptakan oleh langkah-langkah yang mempengaruhi perekrutan, karir guid¬ance, skema kerja dan pendidikan berulang atau insentif keuangan.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 2:

PROSPEK KERJA DAN
STRUKTUR KUALIFIKASI
prospek kerja jangka menengah yang sangat tidak pasti. Tingginya tingkat unemploy-ment selama 1974-1975 resesi telah kemudian jatuh hanya sedikit (kecuali di Amerika Serikat). Bahkan dalam hal terjadi kemajuan moderat dalam permintaan konsumen dan produksi tidak ada jaminan dalam jangka menengah dari kebangkitan yang kuat dalam de mand untuk tenaga kerja dan penurunan substansial akibat pengangguran agregat, terutama karena kekhawatiran orang-orang muda yang memasuki dunia kerja dalam jumlah yang meningkat dan untuk siapa biaya perekrutan lebih tinggi. Dalam perspektif seperti yang evolu¬tion dari pola permintaan tenaga kerja sulit untuk memprediksi. Di beberapa negara Anggota perencana wajib untuk menggambarkan prospek jangka menengah dalam ringkasan mode yang sangat, untuk menghubungkan pasokan potensi pekerjaan untuk tenaga kerja yang tersedia dan untuk menyesuaikan zona keseimbangan dan ketidakseimbangan. Dapat diasumsikan bahwa pola permintaan kerja terampil (termasuk sikap dan harapan dari calon majikan) tidak akan berubah secara signifikan dalam jangka menengah. Sampai-sampai sebagian besar individu dalam pekerjaan atau dalam sistem pendidikan dan bahwa tren yang diamati dalam beberapa tahun terakhir (peningkatan lapangan kerja bagi perempuan, meningkatnya tingkat pendidikan lulusan sekolah) yang go¬ing melanjutkan, sifat permintaan masih sangat tidak pasti. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir pekerjaan yang paling baru (92 persen di Amerika Serikat antara tahun 1970 dan 1975 misalnya) telah diciptakan di sektor tersier. Sedikit kenaikan atau stagnasi dalam pekerjaan industri tidak dijelaskan secara unik oleh situasi saat ini dan kemungkinan akan berlanjut dalam jangka menengah ". Hal ini struktural dalam asal dan berasal terutama dari kejenuhan cabang dengan konsentrasi berat tenaga kerja, seperti motor mobil dan bangunan in¬dustries, dan meningkatnya persaingan dari sejumlah negara berkembang. Di Prancis, misalnya, perencana percaya bahwa kerja pekerja manual akan stagnan akibat permintaan jatuh untuk tenaga kerja tidak terampil dan sedikit peningkatan permintaan untuk pekerja terampil. Pada tingkat teknisi 'an kelebihan permintaan diharapkan ". Di Inggris, perkiraan tenaga kerja hingga 1.981 mengantisipasi penurunan ditandai dalam pekerjaan di industri primer, konstruksi bangunan dan "yang bekerja" = ". Hal ini di sektor tersier, yang merupakan -50 sampai 60 persen dari angkatan kerja, kenaikan terbesar dalam permintaan tenaga kerja yang diramalkan. Prakiraan kerja untuk sektor yang beragam ini terutama bermasalah. Potensi penciptaan lapangan kerja dikenakan Berbagai kendala sesuai dengan sub-sektor. Dengan demikian, layanan komersial sangat sensitif terhadap perubahan eksternal, serta menjadi sasaran skema rasionalisasi dan peningkatan produktivitas. Pelayanan publik yang tidak hanya tergantung pada kebijakan anggaran dan fluktuasi pengeluaran publik tetapi juga pada tekanan politik dan sosial. Cabang-cabang tertentu dari sektor publik, seperti pengajaran dan penelitian, yang dekat saturasi dan, dalam beberapa, surplus sudah muncul. Pekerjaan tambahan harus, apalagi, menyerap sebagai kategori prioritas personil non-mapan dan memungkinkan untuk realokasi posting untuk orang yang sudah dalam sebuah organisasi. Di banyak negara, proyeksi penawaran dan permintaan mengungkapkan surplus kualifikasi pasca sekolah menengah yang, dalam kasus Amerika Serikat, bisa menjadi urutan satu juta selama periode 1974¬198522. Proyeksi tersebut menyoroti penurunan tajam dalam prospek kerja bagi lulusan univer¬sity, terutama di sektor publik. Menurut penelitian di Jerman yang dikutip sebelumnya, situasi dicatat di masa lalu harus berubah secara radikal. Akibat keterbatasan anggaran, rendahnya permintaan untuk guru dan peneliti dan- di negara-negara tertentu atau daerah-otoritas lokal volume utang publik, perluasan masa depan pekerjaan publik mungkin akan sangat terbatas. Permintaan penggantian diperkirakan menyerap hanya sekitar 15 persen dari lulusan universitas antara tahun 1975 dan 1985, com¬pared dengan 30 persen pada 1970-1975. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa kurang dari setengah dari lulusan ini akan menemukan "memadai" pekerjaan baik publik maupun sektor swasta dalam 10 tahun ke depan, dengan yang lain harus puas dengan pekerjaan pada tingkat yang lebih rendah.
prospek yang berbeda terlihat untuk Swedia, bagaimanapun, di mana setelah periode kekurangan guru (1965-1970), diikuti oleh kelebihan (1970-1975), situasi yang lebih seimbang sekarang diperkirakan, tetapi tidak termasuk kemungkinan kedua kekurangan di beberapa sektor (misalnya kesehatan, teknik ) dan kejenuhan calon orang lain (misalnya pendidikan) `'. Asumsi tentang pertumbuhan sektor jasa, faktor penentu utama dalam menghitung kebutuhan, jelas sangat tidak pasti. Namun, keberadaan dis¬crepancies antara aspirasi dan pekerjaan yang ditawarkan diakui. Untuk mempersempit perbedaan ini telah terjadi pemeriksaan kemungkinan mobilitas dan substitusi yang dapat dibuat dengan langkah-langkah yang mempengaruhi perekrutan, guid¬ance karir, skema kerja-studi dan pendidikan berulang atau insentif keuangan.