system capacity in low-income countries to prepare for, cope with, and recover as far as possible from the
health effects of climate change that do occur could be partly addressed by equitable partnerships between
high-income and low-income countries.
The health community has a role in the promotion of policies to reduce emissions of all climate-active pollutants,
both because many of these pollutants are health hazards now and because all push the climate towards
possible extremes within this century. Major reductions in mortality would ensue from measures to reduce
combustion of carbon-containing fuel and consequent carbon dioxide and fine particle emissions, for example
by curbing coal combustion. Furthermore, there are co-benefits for both health and climate from actions to
reduce short-lived climate pollutants, such as black carbon and methane, the second most important
greenhouse gas and the primary precursor to ozone in the lower atmosphere. 8,9 Provision of wider access to
reproductive health services could also reduce carbon dioxide emissions over the century and improve maternal
and child health.10
Wise policies to develop low-emission economies that use the full range of available technological options
would provide many societal benefits and only have moderate impacts on economic growth projections.9
Nevertheless, such changes tend to be opposed by those with a stake in current economic pathways.
The burden of disease and injury due to climate change falls mainly on specific vulnerable groups, particularly
those living in poverty. Vulnerability to climate change is in many cases inversely related to historical
greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the responsibility for leading policies to reduce these emissions should be
shouldered by those nations and commercial interests that have enjoyed the benefits of fossil-fuel-driven
development. Since emerging economies are responsible for a growing proportion of emissions, however, they
too must move towards development with low greenhouse gas emissions, which some are starting to do.
The timescale is daunting but not a reason for inaction: the health community needs to argue for a long-term
perspective on climate change. Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
states that the objective is to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the Earth's climate. 11 Without
decisive action this objective cannot be achieved. The world's carbon budget to keep global increases in
temperature below 2°C is likely to be exceeded by 2040.9
Society must, therefore, enhance efforts to adapt to
reduce adverse effects on human health, particularly for the most vulnerable. The prospect of extreme climates
beyond mid-century, however, should impel the health community to promote deep cuts in emissions of climate-
active pollutants now for the long-term protection of human welfare, starting with co-benefit actions that protect
both health and climate.
The authors were members of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
and contributed to chapter 11 on human health. This Comment represents their own views and not necessarily
those of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
References
1 TF Stocker, D Qin, G-K Plattner, IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution
of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, 2013,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
2 K Riahi, V Krey, S Rao, RCP-8.5: exploring the consequence of high emission trajectories, Climatic Change,
Vol. 109, 2011, 33-57
3 S Sherwood, M Huber, An adaptabiity limit to climate change from heat stress, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol.
107, 2010, 9552-9555
4 JP Dunne, RJ Stouffer, JG John, Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming, Nat
Climate Change, Vol. 3, 2014, 563-566
5 KR Smith, CD Butler, J Dixon, AC Capon, Healthy people, places and planet: reflections based on Tony
McMichael's four decades of contribution to epidemiological understanding, 2014, ANU E-Press, Canberra,
chapter 34 (in press).
25 November 2014 Page 2 of 4 ProQuest
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