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EUR Selling Momentum Intact But Slo

EUR Selling Momentum Intact But Slow Into Tear-End - Credit Agricole
08 Dec 2014 04:48 EDT
Adam Myers, Senior FX Strategist
Manuel Oliveri, FX Strategist
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Despite still extended short positioning, widening interest rate spreads should continue to exert downward pressure upon EUR in the week ahead.

This driver was again evident this week following the ECB policy meeting where initial disappointment following the ECB press conference quickly fading been replaced with renewed EUR selling. Justification for such selling was corroborated by the EMU-US 3x6FRA spread which has moved over 0.1% against EUR/USD in the past week.

Hence with market expectations keenly focused upon the possibility of sovereign QE by the ECB, such selling appears unlikely to be easily distracted as we move into year-end. Indeed the ECB sovereign-QE threat, plays in favour of policy makers buying them further time to see if current policy measures are gaining necessary traction.

As such EUR/USD should depreciate further into year-end on pure ECB-policy before the Fed profile is even considered.
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EUR Selling Momentum Intact But Slow Into Tear-End - Credit Agricole08 Dec 2014 04:48 EDTAdam Myers, Senior FX StrategistManuel Oliveri, FX Strategiststory providerShare on print Print Share on email EmailDespite still extended short positioning, widening interest rate spreads should continue to exert downward pressure upon EUR in the week ahead.This driver was again evident this week following the ECB policy meeting where initial disappointment following the ECB press conference quickly fading been replaced with renewed EUR selling. Justification for such selling was corroborated by the EMU-US 3x6FRA spread which has moved over 0.1% against EUR/USD in the past week.Hence with market expectations keenly focused upon the possibility of sovereign QE by the ECB, such selling appears unlikely to be easily distracted as we move into year-end. Indeed the ECB sovereign-QE threat, plays in favour of policy makers buying them further time to see if current policy measures are gaining necessary traction.As such EUR/USD should depreciate further into year-end on pure ECB-policy before the Fed profile is even considered.
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EUR Selling Momentum Intact But Slow Into Tear-End - Credit Agricole
08 Dec 2014 04:48 EDT
Adam Myers, Senior FX Strategist
Manuel Oliveri, FX Strategist
story provider
Share on print Print Share on email Email

Despite still extended short positioning, widening interest rate spreads should continue to exert downward pressure upon EUR in the week ahead.

This driver was again evident this week following the ECB policy meeting where initial disappointment following the ECB press conference quickly fading been replaced with renewed EUR selling. Justification for such selling was corroborated by the EMU-US 3x6FRA spread which has moved over 0.1% against EUR/USD in the past week.

Hence with market expectations keenly focused upon the possibility of sovereign QE by the ECB, such selling appears unlikely to be easily distracted as we move into year-end. Indeed the ECB sovereign-QE threat, plays in favour of policy makers buying them further time to see if current policy measures are gaining necessary traction.

As such EUR/USD should depreciate further into year-end on pure ECB-policy before the Fed profile is even considered.
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