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or two later that companies are laying off workers in record numbers. You’re now presentedwith two contradictory portraits of labor market conditions, both covering thesame time period. Which should you believe?The confusion doesn’t stop there. Another complication, one especially maddening toinvestors and economists, is that people can behave counterintuitively. Just look at twoostensibly related reports: consumer confidence and consumer spending. The first measuresthe general mood of potential shoppers: If they are upbeat about the economy, itstands to reason they will spend more. If there is widespread gloom and uncertainty aboutthe future, logic would lead you to believe people will curb their spending and savemoney instead. However, that’s not the way it plays out in the real world. There appearsto be little relationship between these two measures. During the mild 2001 recession,consumer confidence kept plummeting throughout the year, reaching levels not seen indecades. Yet these same consumers not only refused to cut back on spending that year,they bought homes and cars at a record pace. Obviously, one cannot determine the outlookfor consumer spending just by monitoring the psychological state of Americanhouseholds. The inclination to spend is influenced by many factors, including personalincome growth, job security, interest rates, and the buildup in wealth from the value ofone’s home and the ownership of stocks and bonds.There is also the quandary that comes with abundance. Everyone—from the professionalmoney manager down to the mom dabbling part time in the markets—can beoverwhelmed by the statistical minutia out there. How do you discern which indicatorsare worth watching and which ones to view with skepticism or even ignore? How does aninvestor employ economic indicators to help choose which stocks and bonds to buy andsell, and when? Which measures should a business forecaster follow to spot coming economictrends? What key indicators should corporate chiefs rely on to help them decidewhether to hire new workers or invest in new equipment?You can find the answers to these questions in subsequent chapters, but clearlysome economic indicators are far more telling than others. Generally, the most influentialstatistics—those most likely to shake up the stock, bond, and currency markets—possesssome of the following attributes:• Accuracy: Certain economic measures are known to be more reliable than others inassessing the economy’s health. What determines their accuracy is linked to howthe data is compiled. Most economic indicators are based on results of public surveys.Getting a large and representative sample is thus a prerequisite for accuracy.For instance, to measure the change in consumer price inflation, the government’sBureau of Labor Statistics sends out agents and conducts telephone interviewsevery month to find out how much prices have changed on 80,000 items and servicesat 23,000 retail outlets around the country. To calculate shifts in consumerconfidence, the Conference Board, a business research organization, polls 5,000households each month.Another variable is the proportion of those queried who actually came back withanswers. How quickly did they respond? The bigger and faster the response, the10 Chapter 1 • The Lock-Upbetter the quality of the data and the smaller the subsequent revisions. If an indicatorhas a history of suffering large revisions, it generally carries less weight in thefinancial markets. After all, why should an investor buy stocks or a company hireadditional workers when the underlying economic statistic is suspect to begin with?The monthly construction spending report by the Commerce Department is one thatgets substantially revised and is thus often ignored by the investment community. Incontrast, housing starts figures are rarely revised, which is why this indicator istaken far more seriously.• Timeliness of the indicator: Investors want the most immediate news of the economythat they can get their hands on. The older the data, the more yawns it evokes.The more current it is, the greater the wallop it packs on the markets. Case in point:Investors pay close attention to the employment situation report because it comesout barely a week after the month ends. In contrast, there’s far less interest in theFederal Reserve’s consumer installment credit report, whose information is twomonths old by the time it’s released.• The business cycle stage: There are moments when the release of certain economicindicators is awaited with great anticipation. Yet those same indicators barelyget noticed at other times. Why do these economic measures jump in and out of thelimelight? The answer is that much depends on where the U.S. economy stands inthe business cycle. (The business cycle is a recurring pattern in the economy consistingfirst of growth, followed by weakness and recession, and finally by aresumption of growth. We’ll take a closer look at the business cycle in the nextchapter.) During a recession, when there are lots of unemployed workers and idlemanufacturing capacity, inflation is less of a concern. Thus, measures such as theconsumer price index, which gauges inflation at the retail level, do not have thesame impact on the financial markets that they would if the economy were operatingat full speed. During recessionary periods, indicators that grab the headlines arehousing starts, auto sales, and the major stock indexes, because they often providethe earliest clues that an economic recovery is imminent. Once business activity isin full swing, inflation measures like the CPI take center stage again, while theother indicators recede a bit into the background.• Predictive ability: A few indicators have a reputation of successfully spotting turningpoints in the economy well in advance. We mentioned how housing and auto
sales as well as the stock indexes have such characteristics. However, other lessknown
measures are harbingers of a change in business activity. One such indicator
is the advance orders for durable goods. Generally, economic gauges known for
being ahead of the curve carry more weight with investors.
• Degree of interest: Depending on whether you’re an investor, an economist, a
manufacturer, or a banker, some indicators might be of greater interest to you than
others. Business leaders, for instance, might focus on new home sales and existing
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