Does the Three-Step Process Work?Al

Does the Three-Step Process Work?
Although you might agree with the logic of the three-step investment process, you might wonder
how well this process works in selecting investments. The results of several academic studies
have supported this technique. First, studies indicated that most changes in an individual
firm’s earnings could be attributed to changes in aggregate corporate earnings and changes in
earnings for the firm’s industry, with the aggregate earnings changes being more important.
Although the relative influence of the general economy and the industry on a firm’s earnings
varied among individual firms, the results consistently demonstrated that the economic environment
had a significant effect on firm earnings.
Second, studies by Moore and Cullity (1988) and Siegel (1991) found a relationship between
aggregate stock prices and various economic series, such as employment, income, and
production. These results supported the view that a relationship exists between stock prices
and economic expansions and contractions.
Third, an analysis of the relationship between rates of return for the aggregate stock market,
alternative industries, and individual stocks showed that most of the changes in rates of return
for individual stocks could be explained by changes in the rates of return for the aggregate stock
market and the stock’s industry. As shown by Meyers (1973), although the importance of the
market effect tended to decline over time and the significance of the industry effect varied
among industries, the combined market-industry effect on an individual stock’s rate of return
was still important.

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Apakah Tiga-Langkah Kerja?
Meskipun Anda mungkin setuju dengan logika proses investasi tiga langkah, Anda mungkin bertanya-tanya
seberapa baik proses ini bekerja dalam memilih investasi. Hasil beberapa studi akademis
telah mendukung teknik ini. Pertama, penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar perubahan individu
laba perusahaan dapat dikaitkan dengan perubahan pendapatan agregat perusahaan dan perubahan
pendapatan bagi industri perusahaan, dengan perubahan laba agregat menjadi lebih penting.
Meskipun pengaruh relatif dari ekonomi secara umum dan industri pada pendapatan sebuah perusahaan
bervariasi antara perusahaan individual, hasil konsisten menunjukkan bahwa lingkungan ekonomi
memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap pendapatan perusahaan.
Kedua, studi oleh Moore dan Cullity (1988) dan Siegel (1991) menemukan hubungan antara
harga saham agregat dan ekonomi berbagai seri, seperti pekerjaan, pendapatan, dan
produksi. Hasil ini mendukung pandangan bahwa ada hubungan antara harga saham
dan ekspansi ekonomi dan kontraksi.
Ketiga, analisis hubungan antara tingkat pengembalian pasar saham agregat,
industri alternatif, dan saham individu menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar dari perubahan tarif dari kembali
untuk saham individu dapat dijelaskan oleh perubahan dalam tingkat pengembalian untuk saham agregat
pasar dan industri saham. Seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh Meyers (1973), meskipun pentingnya
efek pasar cenderung menurun dari waktu ke waktu dan signifikansi efek industri bervariasi
antara industri, efek pasar-industri gabungan di tingkat suatu saham individu pengembalian
masih penting.