RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS The reasons

RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS
The reasons for degradation of rangelands are human-induced, including
climate change. The result of PPR show that human activity accounts for
55% of grassland degradation during 1961-2005, and climate change
accounts for 45% (Table 1).
Some studies show that the main causes of human-induced degradation
are attributable to overpopulation (Kaplan, 1994) and overgrazing and
backward farming practices (Cleaver and Donovan, 1995; Cleaver and
Schreiber, 1996). In relation to the specific rangeland ecosystem of
Xinjiang, the degradation problems are the inevitable result of the
demands for animal products far exceeding the availability of supply of
natural grazing and the failure of rangeland users to balance stock
numbers with available fodder.
(1) The growth of population taking Altay prefecture as example, since
1955, the population has increased greatly the annual growth rate of
population has been 3.51% from 1955 to 1975, and growth continues
today, albeit at lower rates. Population growth creates two results: one is
the increased demand for arable land; the other is the increasing demand
for animal products (contingent on an adequate level of wealth needed to
acquire those products). The coefficient of correlation between the
population and the number of livestock amounts to 0.91. Based on GIS
techniques and land use data for Xinjiang between 1990 and 2000, which
were interpreted by landsat TM remote sensing images (Hou Xiyong et
al., 2004), there are about 52,000 ha of grassland which have been
transferred into cultivated land during the ten years from 1990 to 2000.
Because of the bottleneck of insufficient water resources, most of them
cannot be cropped continuously. They then become ‘black’ or bare
fallow. Pressure on land resources tends to stimulate further cultivation
and this stimulates a vicious cycle of land degradation.
(2) Economic development has the same influence (and perhaps a greater
impact) than population growth. Further, because of the development of
secondary industry, especially mining, some grassland has been seriously
International Journal of Organic Agriculture Research and Development
Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) pp. 1-23
7
damaged. Further, the aggregate regional income has been increased with
the development of the mining economy and, predictably, food demand
and consumption have also increased. According to our research, with an
income increase of 1%, the consumption will rise by 1.23%; price rise
1%, the consumption only drop by 0.529. In a region such as Xinjiang,
food demand is price inelastic and income elastic. The results show that
consumption has strong relationship with the income, and is not very
sensitive to changes in the price.
Table1 Influence of grassland degradation driving factors
Indicator
Keeping the
largest volume
The area of
arable land
Average annual
temperature
Average monthly
precipitation
Average monthly
sunshine hours
__
_______
_________
__
_______
_________
__
_______
_________
__
_______
_________
__
_______
_________
Influence
period
Relative
impact
Weight Relative
impact
Weight Relative
impact
Weight Relative
impact
Weight
Relative
impact
Weight
1961-1983
0.43
0.14
1.00
0.34
0.54
0.18
0.40
0.13
0.60
0.20
1984-2005
1.00
0.39
0.47
0.18
0.44
0.17
0.41
0.16
0.24
0.09
1961-2005
1.00
0.33
0.69
0.22
0.33
0.11
0.51
0.16
0.54
0.18
Projection
indicator
Coefficient S = 0.1
the number of projectors M = 3, MU = 3
(3) The pursuit of maximum utility by herders. Herders’ lifestyles are
affected strongly by the production methods of transhumance. As
consumers, a basic feature of their livelihoods is a demand for few
durable goods and simple foods. Their traditional attitude towards life
can be seen as based on a need for subsistence economy with an
associated respect for nature. Since they have settled, however, they are
stimulated by the expanding opportunities for consumption and the
disparity of income between them as herders and other peasants, so that
their demand for increased disposable income is increasing rapidly.
An important problem is how to meet these new income aspirations.
Theoretically, herders can migrate to another enterprise which offers
more income. In fact, thanks to their different language, culture, and the
traditional habits, most of them still live on the proceeds of their grazing
livestock systems. Their main source of income still comes from
breeding and selling animals.
Under these circumstances, they can improve their income by two ways.
One is to improve the productivity by the application of appropriate
technology (breeding, feeding and productivity). The second is to enlarge
the scale of breeding. The former is regarded commonly as the more
International Journal of Organic Agriculture Research and Development
Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) pp. 1-23
8
rational choice. The main manifestation of technological progress
relevant to improving herders’ incomes should be the reduction of the
risk of production and the increase in production and productivity per
breeding animal by a variety of means. Table 2 shows the fluctuation of
the risk variable (Appendix B) between1991 to 2002. It is obvious that
the level of fluctuation has declined. The production per animal has been
rising, in which the production of wool and meat per sheep have been
raised respectively by 0.2 kg and 0.89 kg. There is no doubt that
technological progress has contributed to improve production. However,
new technology adoption is so slow that it cannot be relied to improve
the herders’ incomes significantly. Therefore most herders have chosen
the method of enlarging their enterprise scale in order to improve their
livelihoods.
Pastoral land tenure is not the root cause of grassland degradation in
Xinjiang: There is the common perception among government officials
and researchers that the situation in Xinjiang is a classical “tragedy of the
commons” problem, an apparently invariable outcome of having
privately owned livestock grazing on (unregulated) land occupied under
commons regimes. The policy of individualising land tenure is
predicated on the assumption that it will improve tenurial security and
create the incentives for owners of property rights to adopt more
sustainable resource management strategies. Obviously, the idea is on the
basis of two economic theories relevant to land tenure. One is Hardin’s
“tragedy of the commons” (Hardin, 1968); the other is the theory of
property rights within an individualistic ownership structure.
A precondition of the Hardin’s theory is the assumption of free
access to the common land. Indeed, he asserts that freedom of the
commons means ruin for all. But open access commons are not
consistent with experience in Xinjiang or indeed in many other areas
where communal forms of tenure are practiced (Ostrom, 1990). In
addition, some research shows that Hardin has overlooked some other
factors which prevent the tragedy happening. The power may come from
the either the government but may also come from the interaction and
choices of local people (Ostrom, 1990; Ouchi, 1980; Bowles and Gintis,
2002) However, none of these solutions can solve the problems
completely (Bowles, 2006). Which kind of tenurial form is most
appropriate depends on many factors, such as the situation of resource,
International Journal of Organic Agriculture Research and Development
Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) pp. 1-23
9
the differences of factors/stakeholders (their wealth, social status,
technical ability.), social capital and social preferences, etc.
Table 2: The change in the Coefficient of Risk in the livestock industry
in Xinjiang
Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Coefficient 0.0331 0.0542 0.0577 0.0549 0.0473 0.0392 0.0255 0.0166 0.0090 0.0187 0.0004
of risk
In practice, for reasons related to both the resource configuration
and Kazak culture, it is questionable whether an institutional change
based on reallocating property rights would improve resource
management and reduce grassland degradation. Firstly, the nature of the
resource configuration, particularly the extensive nature of the resource
and the seasonality of resource use, makes the definition, monitoring,
and enforcement of individual household boundaries difficult and costly.
It is simply not practical. Secondly, Kazak pastoral households have long
history of co-operation and co-ordination that cuts across more spheres
than just land management. They know each other very well, and have
established equitable governance mechanisms regarding pasture use.
These characteristics make the common property regimes of Xinjiang
suitable for a combination of government regulation and community
governance (Banks, 2001).

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

HASIL ANALISIS Alasan untuk degradasi rangelands Manusia-induced, termasuk perubahan iklim. Hasil dari PPR menunjukkan bahwa aktivitas manusia menyumbang 55% padang rumput degradasi selama 1961-2005, dan perubahan iklimmenyumbang 45% (Tabel 1). Beberapa studi menunjukkan bahwa penyebab utama manusia-induced degradasi berkaitan dengan kelebihan populasi (Kaplan, 1994) dan kebanyakan ladang ternak dan praktek pertanian yang terbelakang (cerdas dan Donovan, 1995; Cerdas dan Schreiber, 1996). Dalam kaitannya dengan ekosistem khusus rangeland Xinjiang, masalah degradasi adalah hasil tak terelakkan dari tuntutan untuk produk-produk hewani yang jauh melebihi ketersediaan pasokan merumput alami dan kegagalan rangeland pengguna untuk menyeimbangkan saham angka dengan pakan yang tersedia. (1) pertumbuhan penduduk mengambil Prefektur Altay sebagai contoh, sejak 1955, populasi telah meningkat sangat tingkat pertumbuhan tahunan populasi telah 3,51% 1955-1975, dan pertumbuhan terus hari ini, meskipun pada tingkat yang lebih rendah. Pertumbuhan penduduk menciptakan dua hasil: satu adalah meningkatnya permintaan untuk tanah yang subur; yang lain adalah meningkatnya permintaan untuk produk-produk hewani (bergantung pada tingkat yang memadai kekayaan yang diperlukan untuk memperoleh produk tersebut). Koefisien dari korelasi antara penduduk dan jumlah jumlah ternak 0.91. Berbasis GIS teknik dan tanah menggunakan data untuk Xinjiang antara tahun 1990 dan 2000, yang yang ditafsirkan oleh landsat TM remote sensing gambar (Hou Xiyong et Al., 2004), ada sekitar 52.000 ha padang rumput yang telah ditransfer ke tanah dibudidayakan selama sepuluh tahun dari 1990 sampai 2000. Karena kemacetan sumber daya air tidak mencukupi, kebanyakan dari mereka tidak bisa dipotong secara terus menerus. Mereka kemudian menjadi 'hitam' atau telanjang Bera. Tekanan pada sumberdaya lahan cenderung merangsang lebih lanjut budidaya dan ini merangsang lingkaran setan degradasi lahan. (2) pembangunan ekonomi memiliki pengaruh yang sama (dan mungkin lebih besar dampak) daripada pertumbuhan penduduk. Lebih lanjut, karena perkembangan industri sekunder, khususnya pertambangan, beberapa rumput telah serius International Journal of penelitian pertanian organik dan pengembangan Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) ms. 1-237rusak. Lebih lanjut, agregat pendapatan daerah telah meningkat dengan perkembangan ekonomi pertambangan dan, bisa ditebak, kebutuhan pangan dan konsumsi juga telah meningkat. Menurut penelitian kami, dengan peningkatan pendapatan sebesar 1%, konsumsi akan meningkat sebesar 1.23%; kenaikan harga 1%, konsumsi hanya drop oleh 0.529. Di daerah seperti Xinjiang, Makanan permintaan adalah harga elastis dan pendapatan elastis. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi memiliki hubungan kuat dengan pendapatan, dan tidak sangat sensitif terhadap perubahan dalam harga.Table1 pengaruh padang rumput degradasi faktor mengemudiIndikatorMenjaga volume terbesarDaerah tanah suburRata-rata tahunansuhuRata-rata bulanan curah hujanRata-rata bulanan matahari__________________________________________________________________________________________PengaruhperiodeRelatifdampakRelatif beratdampakRelatif beratdampakRelatif beratdampakBerat badanRelatifdampakBerat badan1961-19830,430,141,000,340.540,180.400,130,600,201984-20051,000.390,470,180. 440.170,410.160.240.091961-20051,000.330,690.220.330.110,510.160.540,18ProyeksiindikatorKoefisien S = 0,1jumlah proyektor M = 3, MU = 3(3) mengejar maksimum utilitas oleh penggembala. Gaya hidup penggembala adalah dipengaruhi kuat oleh metode produksi transhumance. Sebagai konsumen, fitur dasar penghidupan adalah permintaan untuk beberapa barang tahan lama dan makanan sederhana. Sikap mereka tradisional terhadap kehidupan dapat dilihat sebagai berdasarkan kebutuhan subsistensi ekonomi dengan terkait menghormati alam. Karena mereka telah menetap, namun, mereka adalah dirangsang oleh memperluas kesempatan untuk konsumsi dan kesenjangan pendapatan antara mereka sebagai penggembala dan petani lainnya, sehingga permintaan mereka untuk meningkatkan pendapatan meningkat pesat. Masalah yang penting adalah bagaimana untuk memenuhi aspirasi pendapatan baru tersebut. Secara teoritis, penggembala dapat bermigrasi ke perusahaan lain yang menawarkan lebih banyak pendapatan. Bahkan, berkat bahasanya berbeda, budaya, dan kebiasaan tradisional, sebagian besar dari mereka masih tinggal pada hasil mereka merumput sistem ternak. Sumber utama pendapatan mereka masih berasal dari berkembang biak dan menjual hewan. Dalam keadaan ini, mereka dapat meningkatkan pendapatan mereka dengan dua cara. Salah satunya adalah untuk meningkatkan produktivitas oleh aplikasi sesuai Teknologi (pemuliaan, pakan dan produktivitas). Yang kedua adalah untuk memperbesar skala peternakan. Mantan dianggap umum sebagai lebih International Journal of penelitian pertanian organik dan pengembangan Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) ms. 1-238pilihan yang rasional. Manifestasi utama kemajuan teknologi relevan untuk meningkatkan pendapatan penggembala harus pengurangan risiko produksi dan peningkatan produksi dan produktivitas per Pemuliaan hewan oleh berbagai cara. Tabel 2 menunjukkan fluktuasi risiko variabel (Lampiran B) between1991-2002. Sudah jelas bahwa tingkat fluktuasi telah menurun. Produksi per hewan telah meningkatnya, di mana produksi wol dan daging setiap domba telah dibesarkan masing-masing oleh 0.2 kg dan 0.89 kg. Ada tidak diragukan lagi bahwa kemajuan teknologi telah memberikan kontribusi untuk meningkatkan produksi. Namun, adopsi teknologi baru is soooo slow itu tidak dapat diandalkan untuk meningkatkan penggembala pendapatan secara signifikan. Oleh karena itu kebanyakan penggembala telah memilih metode pembesaran skala usaha mereka untuk meningkatkan mereka mata pencaharian.Pastoral pertanahan bukanlah akar penyebab degradasi padang rumput di Xinjiang: There is the common perception among government officials and researchers that the situation in Xinjiang is a classical “tragedy of the commons” problem, an apparently invariable outcome of having privately owned livestock grazing on (unregulated) land occupied under commons regimes. The policy of individualising land tenure is predicated on the assumption that it will improve tenurial security and create the incentives for owners of property rights to adopt more sustainable resource management strategies. Obviously, the idea is on the basis of two economic theories relevant to land tenure. One is Hardin’s “tragedy of the commons” (Hardin, 1968); the other is the theory of property rights within an individualistic ownership structure. A precondition of the Hardin’s theory is the assumption of free access to the common land. Indeed, he asserts that freedom of the commons means ruin for all. But open access commons are not consistent with experience in Xinjiang or indeed in many other areas where communal forms of tenure are practiced (Ostrom, 1990). In addition, some research shows that Hardin has overlooked some other factors which prevent the tragedy happening. The power may come from the either the government but may also come from the interaction and choices of local people (Ostrom, 1990; Ouchi, 1980; Bowles and Gintis, 2002) However, none of these solutions can solve the problems completely (Bowles, 2006). Which kind of tenurial form is most appropriate depends on many factors, such as the situation of resource, International Journal of Organic Agriculture Research and Development Vol. 1 No 1 (2010) pp. 1-239the differences of factors/stakeholders (their wealth, social status, technical ability.), social capital and social preferences, etc. Table 2: The change in the Coefficient of Risk in the livestock industry in Xinjiang Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Coefficient 0.0331 0.0542 0.0577 0.0549 0.0473 0.0392 0.0255 0.0166 0.0090 0.0187 0.0004of risk In practice, for reasons related to both the resource configurationand Kazak culture, it is questionable whether an institutional change based on reallocating property rights would improve resource management and reduce grassland degradation. Firstly, the nature of the resource configuration, particularly the extensive nature of the resourceand the seasonality of resource use, makes the definition, monitoring, and enforcement of individual household boundaries difficult and costly. It is simply not practical. Secondly, Kazak pastoral households have long history of co-operation and co-ordination that cuts across more spheres than just land management. They know each other very well, and have established equitable governance mechanisms regarding pasture use. These characteristics make the common property regimes of Xinjiang cocok untuk kombinasi peraturan pemerintah dan masyarakat pemerintahan (Bank, 2001).