Erdogan's 'New Turkey' drifts towar

Erdogan's 'New Turkey' drifts towards isolation
By Mark Lowen BBC News, Istanbul
President Erdogan (centre) has found himself to be increasingly isolated on the world stage
There is an old saying in Turkish: "The Turk has no friend but the Turk." As this country drifts towards isolation under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the proverb is ringing uncomfortably true.
During his 11 years as prime minister, Turkey rose in prominence. It began negotiations for European Union membership. It hugely increased its diplomatic presence, particularly in Africa. Its biggest city, Istanbul, now hosts one of the world's largest airport hubs with an airline that flies to more countries than any other.
But in the past months, perhaps two years or so, something has soured. The world's statesmen still stop by - the US Vice President, Joe Biden, arriving this week - but Turkey today is distinctly lacking friends.
When the UN General Assembly voted last month for new non-permanent members of the Security Council, Turkey confidently assumed it would secure a seat. But, humiliatingly, it lost out to Spain and New Zealand: A slap in the face for Mr Erdogan, elected president in August.
Turkey has been transformed under Mr Erdogan's leadership from a financial basket-case to the world's 17th largest economy
Mr Erdogan has made clear that he has little time for people who have taken to the streets to protest against him
It began with the "Arab Spring". Turkey placed the wrong bets, backing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and banking on a swift overthrow of President Assad. Now it has no ambassador in Cairo, Mr Erdogan denouncing his Egyptian counterpart Abdul Fattah al-Sisi as an "unelected tyrant".
And Turkey has been inexorably drawn into the nightmare in Syria, lambasted for allowing foreign jihadists to cross its borders. Ties with Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia have weakened.
And a former strategic partnership with Israel lies in tatters - the ambassador to Tel Aviv has been withdrawn, Mr Erdogan comparing the country's bombardment of Gaza to "genocide…reminiscent of the Holocaust".
But now even relations with old allies like the US have sunk. As Washington built a coalition to fight Islamic State, Turkey stayed on the sidelines, refusing to let the US use its airbases here for strikes unless it also targets President Assad and backs a no-fly zone in Syria.
A few hours after Mr Erdogan warned President Obama last month not to arm Kurdish fighters in Syria, the US airdropped weapons. There could hardly have been a clearer sign of discord.
'Unparalleled success'
"There is the realisation in government of what ground has been lost," says Sinan Ulgen of the Edam think tank, "but Ankara justifies it by alleging Turkey's isolation is because it's the only country courageous enough to adopt the moral high-ground and a value-based foreign policy.
Mr Erdogan has described Egyptian leader Abdul Fattah al-Sisi as an "unelected tyrant"
The president has been equally critical of the Israeli bombardment of Gaza earlier this year
"That argument is bought by Erdogan's constituents - and for him, that's what matters."
That is, ultimately, what drives Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His unparalleled success at the ballot box has given him the unshakeable conviction that his policies are the right ones.
The mass street protests in June 2013 sparked by a construction plan in Istanbul's Gezi Park didn't alter his path - while senior figures around him called for dialogue, he labelled the demonstrators "riff raff".
And he even bounced back from a devastating leak of private phone calls a year ago that implicated him and close allies in corruption allegations.
'Weakened influence'
He responded by denouncing an "attempted coup", firing thousands of judges and police and attempting to ban social media. He closed ranks, relying on arch-loyalists.
Turkey has refused to let the US use its airbases here for strikes against Islamic State militants in Syria unless it also targets President Assad and backs a no-fly zone
"The Gezi protests, followed by his reaction to the corruption claims, were when international opinion towards Erdogan turned," says Sinan Ulgen.
"Turkey's isolation is a problem for itself but also for the West. If the West wants to achieve its security aims in the region, potentially it has no better partner than Turkey.
"But with Turkey's influence weakened, the West is handicapped. Erdogan believes democratic legitimacy is about the ballot box. Others expect more from Turkish democracy - a free press, an independent judiciary and the rule of law."
In recent weeks, criticism at home has mounted - from the construction of a 1,000-room presidential palace costing over $615m (£392m) in protected forest - defying over 30 legal challenges - to verbal attacks on foreign journalists, to controversial statements about Muslims, rather than Columbus, founding America.
They have added to the sense of a government adrift.
'Economic powerhouse'
And yet, among his faithful, he retains his support. The 52% who elected him president care little about a Twitter ban or claims of corruption, which they believe swirl around most politicians.
For them, the transformation of a financial basket-case to the world's 17th largest economy in the past decade is what matters - new hospitals, roads and schools.
His supporters, mainly religious conservatives, feel liberated by their president's encouragement to wear headscarves in schools and universities, previously banned by 80 years of secularist rule. And they love his strongman image - the leader willing to stand up to the West.
Mr Erdogan has made Turkey "a political and economic powerhouse", according to his adviser, Ibrahim Kalin, which has "empowered the middle class".
He started "a new process to settle the Kurdish issue, has taken a number of historic steps to recognise the rights of religious minorities and has fought against military tutelage" - a reference to his widely-praised moves to blunt an army which overthrew four governments since 1960.
But the early successes of his leadership have been forgotten with his growing authoritarianism.
"In private, he's quite charming," a European official told me, "and can listen to advice. But in public, it's all about winning the fight. Compromise, checks and balances are signs of weakness. He'll naturally go in combative - and then realise a different approach may be needed."
The presidential palace has proved to be a controversial project for Mr Erdogan
The initial favour with the EU has faded with concerns about freedom of expression. As Turkey's progress towards membership has stalled and enlargement fatigue has set in, the EU's leverage here has weakened, heightening the sense of isolation.
"The good feeling towards him has dissipated - there is more cautiousness," admits the official. "But we want to keep the accession process going - and we want a more substantial relationship. There is an understanding of the importance of Turkey."
And that, internationally, is what gives Mr Erdogan the confidence he needs: That Turkey is still a crucial player. It is the West's stepping-stone to a volatile Middle East and is a rising economy that no side can ignore.
"Erdogan's own ambition is to become the greatest Turk ever," says the European official. "And even if our enthusiasm for him has been tempered, he's still the guy you have to do business with."
Recep Tayyip Erdogan is building what he calls a "New Turkey". Others call it a polarised, unhappy Turkey - and one where friends at home and abroad are fading fast.

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Erdogan's 'baru Turki' melayang ke arah isolasiOleh Mark Lowen BBC News, Istanbul Presiden Erdogan (tengah) telah menemukan dirinya harus semakin terisolasi di panggung dunia Ada pepatah lama dalam bahasa Turki: "Turki memiliki ada teman tetapi Turk." Karena negara ini melayang ke arah isolasi di bawah kepemimpinan Recep Tayyip Erdogan, peribahasa berdering benar tidak nyaman.Selama 11 tahun sebagai Perdana Menteri, Turki mawar menonjol. Itu dimulai perundingan untuk keanggotaan Uni Eropa. Ini sangat meningkatkan kehadiran diplomatik, khususnya di Afrika. Kota yang terbesar, Istanbul, sekarang host salah satu hub bandara terbesar di dunia dengan sebuah maskapai penerbangan yang terbang ke lebih banyak negara daripada yang lain.Tapi dalam bulan terakhir, mungkin dua tahun atau lebih, sesuatu yang telah memburuk. Negarawan di dunia masih mampir - kita Wakil Presiden Joe Biden, tiba minggu ini - tapi Turki hari ini jelas kurang teman. Ketika Majelis Umum PBB memilih bulan baru anggota tidak tetap Dewan Keamanan, Turki yakin diasumsikan itu akan mengamankan kursi. Namun, humiliatingly, ia kehilangan ke Spanyol dan Selandia Baru: A tamparan di wajah untuk Mr Erdogan, terpilih menjadi Presiden pada bulan Agustus.Turki telah berubah di bawah kepemimpinan Mr Erdogan dari keranjang-kasus keuangan di dunia ekonomi terbesar 17 Mr Erdogan telah membuat jelas bahwa dia memiliki sedikit waktu bagi orang-orang yang telah dibawa ke jalan untuk memprotes dia Itu dimulai dengan "Musim semi Arab". Turki meletakkan taruhan salah, dukungan Persaudaraan Muslim di Mesir dan perbankan pada cepat penggulingan Presiden Assad. Sekarang memiliki Duta besar ada di Kairo, Mr Erdogan mencela rekan Mesir Abdul Fattah al-Sisi sebagai "tiran Terpilih". Dan Turki tak terelakkan telah ditarik ke dalam mimpi buruk di Syria, lambasted untuk memungkinkan asing jihadis untuk menyeberangi perbatasan negaranya. Hubungan dengan Irak, Iran, dan Arab Saudi telah dilemahkan. Dan mantan kemitraan strategis dengan Israel terletak compang - Duta besar ke Tel Aviv telah ditarik, Mr Erdogan membandingkan negara pemboman Gaza untuk "genosida... mengingatkan Holocaust". Tapi sekarang bahkan hubungan dengan sekutu lama seperti AS telah tenggelam. Sebagai Washington dibangun sebuah koalisi untuk melawan negara, Turki Islam tinggal di sela-sela, menolak untuk membiarkan AS menggunakan airbases yang di sini untuk pemogokan kecuali juga target Presiden Assad dan punggung zona larangan terbang di Suriah. Beberapa jam setelah Mr Erdogan diperingatkan untuk Presiden Obama bulan tidak lengan Kurdi pejuang di Suriah, AS airdropped senjata. Bisa hampir tidak ada tanda yang jelas perselisihan. 'Tak tertandingi sukses' "Ada realisasi dalam pemerintahan dasar apa yang telah hilang," kata Sinan Ulgen dari Edam think tank, "tapi Ankara membenarkan hal itu dengan menduga Turki isolasi adalah karena itu adalah satu-satunya negara yang cukup berani untuk mengadopsi tanah tinggi moral dan kebijakan luar negeri berdasarkan nilai. Mr Erdogan telah digambarkan Mesir pemimpin Abdul Fattah al-Sisi sebagai "tiran Terpilih" Presiden telah sama-sama kritis terhadap Israel pemboman Gaza awal tahun ini "Argumen itu dibeli oleh konstituen Erdogan's - dan untuk dia, itulah yang penting."Itu adalah, pada akhirnya, apa yang mendorong Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Keberhasilannya yang tak tertandingi di kotak suara telah memberinya keyakinan teguh bahwa kebijakan adalah yang tepat. Protes massa jalan di Juni 2013 dipicu oleh rencana pembangunan di Istanbul Gezi Park tidak mengubah jalan-Nya - sementara tokoh senior di sekelilingnya yang menyerukan dialog, ia dicap para demonstran "riff raff". Dan ia bahkan bangkit kembali dari kebocoran menghancurkan pribadi panggilan telepon tahun lalu yang terlibat dia dan menutup sekutu dalam tuduhan korupsi. 'Melemah pengaruh' Dia menjawab dengan mencela "kudeta", ribuan hakim dan polisi menembak dan mencoba untuk melarang media sosial. Ia ditutup pangkat, bergantung pada lengkungan-loyalists. Turki telah menolak untuk membiarkan AS menggunakan airbases yang di sini untuk serangan terhadap negara Islam militan di Suriah kecuali juga target Presiden Assad dan punggung zona larangan terbang "Yang protes Gezi, diikuti oleh nya reaksi terhadap klaim korupsi, ketika opini internasional menuju Erdogan," kata Sinan Ulgen."Turki isolasi adalah masalah untuk dirinya sendiri, tetapi juga untuk Barat. Jika Barat ingin mencapai tujuannya keamanan di wilayah tersebut, berpotensi memiliki mitra tidak lebih baik daripada Turki. "Tapi dengan pengaruh Turki melemah, Barat Cacat. Erdogan percaya Demokrat legitimasi tentang kotak suara. Orang lain mengharapkan lebih dari Turki demokrasi - kebebasan pers, independensi sistem peradilan dan penegakan hukum." Dalam beberapa minggu terakhir, kritik di rumah telah dipasang - dari pembangunan Istana Kepresidenan 1.000 kamar biaya lebih dari $615m (£392m) di hutan lindung - lebih dari 30 tantangan hukum - untuk serangan verbal pada wartawan Asing, untuk pernyataan kontroversial tentang Muslim, bukan Columbus, pendiri Amerika menentang. Mereka telah menambahkan rasa pemerintah terombang-ambing.'Lokomotif ekonomi' Dan belum, antara setia-Nya, ia mempertahankan dukungannya. 52% yang dia Terpilih Presiden peduli sedikit tentang larangan Twitter atau klaim korupsi, yang mereka yakini berputar-putar di kebanyakan politisi. Bagi mereka, transformasi keranjang-kasus keuangan di dunia ekonomi terbesar 17 dalam dekade terakhir adalah hal-hal apa - rumah sakit baru, jalan dan sekolah. Pendukung nya, terutama konservatif agama, merasa dibebaskan oleh Presiden mereka dorongan untuk memakai jilbab di sekolah dan Universitas, sebelumnya dilarang oleh 80 tahun pemerintahan sekuler. Dan mereka mencintai gambar cara-nya - pemimpin bersedia berdiri di Barat. Mr Erdogan telah membuat Turki "sebuah politik dan ekonomi kelompok besar", menurut penasihatnya, Ibrahim Kalin, yang telah "memberdayakan kelas menengah". Dia mulai "proses baru untuk menyelesaikan masalah Kurdi, telah mengambil sejumlah langkah-langkah bersejarah untuk mengakui hak-hak minoritas agama dan telah berjuang melawan militer pengawasan" - merujuk nya secara luas dipuji bergerak ke tumpul tentara yang menggulingkan pemerintah empat sejak tahun 1960. Namun dengan kesuksesan awal kepemimpinannya telah dilupakan dengan otoritarianisme nya berkembang. "Secara pribadi, ia cukup menarik," pejabat Eropa mengatakan kepada saya, dan dapat mendengarkan nasihat. Tapi di depan umum, it's all about memenangkan pertarungan. Kompromi, Check and balances adalah tanda-tanda kelemahan. Ia akan secara alami pergi agresif - dan kemudian menyadari yang berbeda pendekatan mungkin diperlukan. " Istana Presiden telah terbukti menjadi sebuah proyek yang kontroversial untuk Mr Erdogan Nikmat awal dengan Uni Eropa telah memudar dengan keprihatinan tentang kebebasan berekspresi. Sebagai kemajuan Turki keanggotaan telah terhenti dan pembesaran kelelahan telah menetapkan dalam, Uni Eropa leverage di sini telah melemah, meningkatnya rasa isolasi. "Perasaan baik terhadap dia telah dihamburkan - ada kehati-hatian yang lain," mengakui resmi. "Tetapi kami ingin menjaga aksesi proses akan - dan kami ingin hubungan yang lebih besar. Tidak ada pemahaman tentang pentingnya Turki." Dan itu, internasional, adalah apa yang memberi Mr Erdogan keyakinan yang dia butuhkan: Turki yang masih adalah pemain penting. Barat batu loncatan menuju Timur Tengah yang stabil dan ekonomi yang meningkat yang ada sisi dapat mengabaikan."Ambisi Erdogan sendiri menjadi Turk terbesar yang pernah," kata pejabat Eropa. "Dan bahkan jika antusiasme kami untuk dia marah, dia adalah masih pria Anda harus melakukan bisnis dengan."Recep Tayyip Erdogan membangun apa yang disebutnya "Turki baru". Lain menyebutnya polarised, bahagia Turki - dan satu mana teman di rumah dan di luar negeri yang cepat memudar.