EUR/USD fell to new lows and could

EUR/USD fell to new lows and could not recover as the dollar stormed on and despite no immediate action from the ECB. The central bank is the star of the upcoming week as well with the TLTRO results, alongside other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Draghi did not deliver QE this time, and adopted a “wait and see” approach, with readiness to act early in 2015. However, his support of the idea, the severe cut in forecasts and the fact that these forecasts did not factor the recent fall in oil prices all show that it is probably a matter of time. Subsequent report imply that a large program is in the works. Apart from that German factory orders shined and PMIs were mixed. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls report was superb with a 321K job gain and finally a bump in wages. This helped push the euro back down to fresh 2 year lows.
Updates:

Dec 8, 8:20: EUR/JPY Likely Heading Towards 148.50: The Euro was seen struggling against the Japanese yen despite the fact that the latter one weakened a lot. The...
Dec 8, 8:17: USD/JPY: Ignore S/T Charts; EUR/USD: Bullish & Bearish Signals – TD: EUR/USD has reached new lows and USD/JPY is reaching high sky levels. Is it time for a pullback in both...
Dec 8, 8:03: EUR/USD: Threatens Additional Price Declines: EURUSD: Having taken back its previous week gains at the end of the week, the pair faces the risk of...

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD December 8 12 2014 technical analysis daily chart euro dollar fundamental outlook and sentiment

Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings: Monday and Tuesday. The ministers of the euro-zone and later the whole EU 28 meet to discuss current affairs. Among the contentious issues we find the French and Italian budgets, which are not consistent with the EU guidelines, the ongoing tensions with Greece about a potential third bailout the Juncker plan to boost growth, which has raised a few eyebrows about its viability. Any serious effort to boost growth would lift the euro, but this isn’t likely.
German Industrial Production: Monday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s powerhouse enjoyed elevated factory orders in October, and industrial output could follow, even if expectations stand at only +0.2% against 1.4% in September.
Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This wide survey of 2800 of analysts and investors further deteriorated with a score of -11.9 points in November. An improvement to -9.9 is expected now. Note that the negative number reflects pessimism, which accompanies us for already three months.
German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany enjoys a very wide surplus and this keeps the euro bid. This is due to its vast exports. The last figure stood on +18.1 billion in September. A small advance to 18.5 billion is predicted.
French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. The zone’s second largest economy has a deficit. In September it stood at 4.7 billion euros. A small squeeze to 4.5 billion is on the cards now. Note that the French government published its budget balance at the same time and a deficit is likely here as well.
French Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:45. Industrial output in Europe’s No. 2 economy remained flat in September, continuing the ongoing stagnation. It is expected to pick up, with a rise of 0.2% in October. Final NFP, published earlier in Paris, is expected to confirm the 0.2% squeeze originally reported.
German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. The drop in oil prices already reached Germany in November, with no change in m/m prices, and with a slide of the EU standard y/y HICP to 0.6%. These numbers will likely be confirmed.
French CPI: Thursday, 7:45. Prices remained flat in October and now they are expected to advance by 0.2%. This input is important for the final read for the euro-zone CPI, which stands at rock bottom levels.
ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. One week after the decision, we get detailed information from the European Central Bank about its current assessment and future forecasts. It will be interesting to get a reminder that the downgraded forecasts do not include the recent fall in oil prices and how worried the ECB staff is.
TLTRO 2: Thursday, 10:15. This is the key event of the week. The ECB announced a program of targeted loans: banks get the money on the basis of them lending it to the real economy. Two tranches have been announced. The first one came short of all expectations, with only €82.6 billion. A more robust take up is expected now, but it is unlikely to surpass €200 billion. In order to advance relatively quickly towards a balance sheet expansion of €1 trillion with the previous 2011-2012 LTROs being paid back, the ECB would need QE, and this could add contribute to paving the way for EZ QE.
German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index is yet another measure of inflation at the deeper end of the economic cycle. After a drop of 0.6% in October, a rise of 0.3% is forecast for November.
Industrial Production: Friday, 10:00. While this all-European figure is released after the German and French ones, it still has the capacity to rock the single currency. After an advance of 0.6% in September, a rise of 0.2% is likely.
Employment Change: Friday, 10:00. This late employment figure could well be overshadowed unless it surprises. An advance of 0.2% is expected for Q3 after the same print in Q2.

* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar started the week with an attempt on the very round 1.25 line (mentioned last week). After the pair was rejected, it began sliding lower, eventually breaking down to lower ground. A shot higher sent it to resistance at 1.2450 but it was unable to maintain these levels and it eventually closes the week close to the lows.

Live chart of EUR/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from lower ground this time. 1.27 is a round number and also worked as resistance to a recovery attempt. This is followed by 1.2660 – which marks the beginning of long term uptrend support.

Below, 1.2570 is the initial low seen in October and now a line of resistance. The next line is critical: of 1.25, which is USD/EUR at 0.80. The pair had various battles around this line, from the topside in October and from the downside in December.

1.2450 is resistance after the pair reached this line in a recovery attempt during December. It is followed by 1.2360, which worked as support more than once, including in November 2014. It was a double bottom at one point.

1.2280 joins the chart after it provided support to the pair in December, but it isn’t a strong line. 1.2245 served as support several times in that summer, and 1.2170 was the “shoulder” in the inverse H&S pattern around the same time. The last line is the 2012 low of 1.2040.

Even lower, the post crisis low of 1.1875 should be watched, as well as 1.17, which was the launch value of the pair in 1999.

Downtrend resistance well respected

As the thick black line shows, the pair is trading under downtrend resistance since mid October. This line should be watched in recovery attempts.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

While the ECB didn’t rush to action now, it is clear that QE is being brewed in the ECB headquarters. Current inflation forecasts show that the ECB is falling short of its single mandate of 2% or “a bit below” inflation, and even these forecasts are already outdated. The TLTRO could be the nail in the coffin by showing that the ECB has no other choice but to tap the sovereign bond market if it wants to expand its balance sheet.

On the other side of the Atlantic, we had an excellent jobs report and some wage inflation. While the bump up may be a one off, even a return to previous job advances keeps the Fed firmly on track to tightening, and that’s the opposite direction that Europe is going to. It seems unlikely that we will get a correction in EUR/USD this week.

In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

EUR/USD fell to new lows and could not recover as the dollar stormed on and despite no immediate action from the ECB. The central bank is the star of the upcoming week as well with the TLTRO results, alongside other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.Draghi did not deliver QE this time, and adopted a “wait and see” approach, with readiness to act early in 2015. However, his support of the idea, the severe cut in forecasts and the fact that these forecasts did not factor the recent fall in oil prices all show that it is probably a matter of time. Subsequent report imply that a large program is in the works. Apart from that German factory orders shined and PMIs were mixed. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls report was superb with a 321K job gain and finally a bump in wages. This helped push the euro back down to fresh 2 year lows.Updates: Dec 8, 8:20: EUR/JPY Likely Heading Towards 148.50: The Euro was seen struggling against the Japanese yen despite the fact that the latter one weakened a lot. The... Dec 8, 8:17: USD/JPY: Ignore S/T Charts; EUR/USD: Bullish & Bearish Signals – TD: EUR/USD has reached new lows and USD/JPY is reaching high sky levels. Is it time for a pullback in both... Dec 8, 8:03: EUR/USD: Threatens Additional Price Declines: EURUSD: Having taken back its previous week gains at the end of the week, the pair faces the risk of...EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:EUR USD December 8 12 2014 technical analysis daily chart euro dollar fundamental outlook and sentiment Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings: Monday and Tuesday. The ministers of the euro-zone and later the whole EU 28 meet to discuss current affairs. Among the contentious issues we find the French and Italian budgets, which are not consistent with the EU guidelines, the ongoing tensions with Greece about a potential third bailout the Juncker plan to boost growth, which has raised a few eyebrows about its viability. Any serious effort to boost growth would lift the euro, but this isn’t likely. German Industrial Production: Monday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s powerhouse enjoyed elevated factory orders in October, and industrial output could follow, even if expectations stand at only +0.2% against 1.4% in September. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This wide survey of 2800 of analysts and investors further deteriorated with a score of -11.9 points in November. An improvement to -9.9 is expected now. Note that the negative number reflects pessimism, which accompanies us for already three months. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany enjoys a very wide surplus and this keeps the euro bid. This is due to its vast exports. The last figure stood on +18.1 billion in September. A small advance to 18.5 billion is predicted. Perancis perdagangan saldo: Selasa, 7:45. Zona ekonomi terbesar kedua memiliki defisit. Pada bulan September ia berdiri di 4.7 miliar euro. Memeras kecil untuk 4,5 miliar adalah pada kartu sekarang. Perhatikan bahwa pemerintah Perancis diterbitkan keseimbangan anggaran pada waktu yang sama dan defisit mungkin di sini juga. Produksi industri Perancis: Rabu, 7:45. Output industri di Eropa No. 2 ekonomi tetap datar pada bulan September, terus berkelanjutan stagnasi. Diharapkan untuk mengambil, dengan munculnya 0,2% di bulan Oktober. Akhir NFP, diterbitkan sebelumnya di Paris, diharapkan untuk mengkonfirmasi pemerasan 0,2% awalnya dilaporkan. CPI akhir Jerman: Kamis, 7:00. Penurunan harga minyak telah mencapai Jerman pada bulan November, dengan tidak ada perubahan dalam harga m/m, dan dengan slide EU standar y/y HICP 0.6%. Angka-angka ini mungkin akan dikonfirmasi. CPI Perancis: Kamis, 7:45. Harga tetap datar pada bulan Oktober dan sekarang mereka diharapkan untuk memajukan dengan 0,2%. Masukan ini penting untuk membaca akhir untuk CPI zona euro, yang berdiri di tingkat terendah. ECB buletin bulanan: Kamis, 9:00. Satu minggu setelah keputusan, kita mendapatkan informasi rinci dari Bank Sentral Eropa tentang penilaian saat ini dan ramalan masa depan. Ini akan menarik untuk mendapatkan pengingat bahwa perkiraan diperlemah tidak termasuk hari musim gugur di harga minyak dan bagaimana khawatir ECB staf. TLTRO 2: Thursday, 10:15. This is the key event of the week. The ECB announced a program of targeted loans: banks get the money on the basis of them lending it to the real economy. Two tranches have been announced. The first one came short of all expectations, with only €82.6 billion. A more robust take up is expected now, but it is unlikely to surpass €200 billion. In order to advance relatively quickly towards a balance sheet expansion of €1 trillion with the previous 2011-2012 LTROs being paid back, the ECB would need QE, and this could add contribute to paving the way for EZ QE. German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index is yet another measure of inflation at the deeper end of the economic cycle. After a drop of 0.6% in October, a rise of 0.3% is forecast for November. Industrial Production: Friday, 10:00. While this all-European figure is released after the German and French ones, it still has the capacity to rock the single currency. After an advance of 0.6% in September, a rise of 0.2% is likely. Employment Change: Friday, 10:00. This late employment figure could well be overshadowed unless it surprises. An advance of 0.2% is expected for Q3 after the same print in Q2.* All times are GMTEUR/USD Technical AnalysisEuro/dollar started the week with an attempt on the very round 1.25 line (mentioned last week). After the pair was rejected, it began sliding lower, eventually breaking down to lower ground. A shot higher sent it to resistance at 1.2450 but it was unable to maintain these levels and it eventually closes the week close to the lows.Live chart of EUR/USD:Technical lines from top to bottom:We start from lower ground this time. 1.27 is a round number and also worked as resistance to a recovery attempt. This is followed by 1.2660 – which marks the beginning of long term uptrend support.Below, 1.2570 is the initial low seen in October and now a line of resistance. The next line is critical: of 1.25, which is USD/EUR at 0.80. The pair had various battles around this line, from the topside in October and from the downside in December.1.2450 is resistance after the pair reached this line in a recovery attempt during December. It is followed by 1.2360, which worked as support more than once, including in November 2014. It was a double bottom at one point.1.2280 joins the chart after it provided support to the pair in December, but it isn’t a strong line. 1.2245 served as support several times in that summer, and 1.2170 was the “shoulder” in the inverse H&S pattern around the same time. The last line is the 2012 low of 1.2040.Even lower, the post crisis low of 1.1875 should be watched, as well as 1.17, which was the launch value of the pair in 1999.Downtrend resistance well respectedAs the thick black line shows, the pair is trading under downtrend resistance since mid October. This line should be watched in recovery attempts.I remain bearish on EUR/USDWhile the ECB didn’t rush to action now, it is clear that QE is being brewed in the ECB headquarters. Current inflation forecasts show that the ECB is falling short of its single mandate of 2% or “a bit below” inflation, and even these forecasts are already outdated. The TLTRO could be the nail in the coffin by showing that the ECB has no other choice but to tap the sovereign bond market if it wants to expand its balance sheet.On the other side of the Atlantic, we had an excellent jobs report and some wage inflation. While the bump up may be a one off, even a return to previous job advances keeps the Fed firmly on track to tightening, and that’s the opposite direction that Europe is going to. It seems unlikely that we will get a correction in EUR/USD this week.In our latest podcast, we preview December’s big events, talk about the importance of jobless claims, the crash in oil prices and GOFO going negative:

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 2:

EUR / USD turun ke posisi terendah baru dan tidak bisa pulih karena dolar menyerbu dan meskipun tidak ada tindakan segera dari ECB. Bank sentral adalah bintang minggu mendatang juga dengan hasil TLTRO, bersama data lainnya. Berikut ini adalah prospek untuk highlights dari minggu ini dan analisis teknis diperbarui untuk EUR / USD. Draghi tidak memberikan QE saat ini, dan mengadopsi "tunggu dan lihat" pendekatan, dengan kesiapan untuk bertindak di awal 2015. Namun, dukungannya ide, dipotong parah di perkiraan dan fakta bahwa ramalan ini tidak faktor jatuhnya harga minyak semua menunjukkan bahwa itu mungkin masalah waktu. Laporan selanjutnya menyiratkan bahwa sebuah program besar adalah dalam karya. Selain itu pesanan pabrik Jerman bersinar dan PMI dicampur. Di AS, laporan NFP adalah luar biasa dengan keuntungan pekerjaan 321K dan akhirnya benjolan upah. Ini membantu mendorong euro kembali ke segar tahun terendah 2. Update: 8 Desember, 08:20: EUR / JPY Kemungkinan Pos Menuju 148.50: The Euro terlihat berjuang melawan yen Jepang meskipun fakta bahwa yang terakhir satu melemah banyak. The ... Desember 8, 08:17: USD / JPY: Abaikan Charts S / T; EUR / USD: Bullish & Bearish Sinyal - TD: EUR / USD telah mencapai terendah baru dan USD / JPY mencapai tingkat langit yang tinggi. Apakah sudah waktunya untuk mundurnya di kedua ... 8 Desember, 08:03: EUR / USD: Ancam tambahan Penurunan Harga: EURUSD: Setelah dibawa kembali keuntungan minggu sebelumnya pada akhir minggu, pasangan menghadapi risiko. .. EUR / USD daily chart dengan support dan resistance garis di atasnya. Klik untuk memperbesar: EUR USD 8 Desember 12 2014 analisis teknis chart daily dolar euro mendasar pandangan dan sentimen Eurogroup dan ECOFIN pertemuan: Senin dan Selasa. Para menteri dari zona euro dan kemudian seluruh Uni Eropa 28 bertemu untuk membahas masalah saat ini. Di antara isu-isu yang kita menemukan anggaran Perancis dan Italia, yang tidak konsisten dengan pedoman Uni Eropa, ketegangan yang sedang berlangsung dengan Yunani tentang potensi bailout ketiga Juncker berencana untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan, yang telah mengangkat beberapa alis tentang kelangsungan hidup. Setiap upaya serius untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan akan mengangkat euro, tapi ini tidak mungkin. Jerman Industrial Production: Senin, 07:00. Pembangkit tenaga listrik euro-zona menikmati pesanan pabrik meningkat pada bulan Oktober, dan output industri bisa mengikuti, bahkan jika harapan berdiri di hanya + 0,2% terhadap 1,4% pada bulan September. Sentix Investor Confidence: Senin, 09:30. Survei ini luas 2.800 analis dan investor lebih memburuk dengan skor -11,9 poin pada bulan November. Perbaikan untuk -9,9 diharapkan sekarang. Perhatikan bahwa angka negatif mencerminkan pesimisme, yang menyertai kita karena sudah tiga bulan. Neraca Perdagangan Jerman: Selasa, 07:00. Jerman menikmati surplus yang sangat luas dan ini membuat tawaran euro. Hal ini disebabkan ekspor yang luas. Angka terakhir berdiri di 18100000000 pada bulan September. Sebuah kemajuan kecil untuk 18,5 miliar diperkirakan. Perancis Neraca Perdagangan: Selasa, 07:45. Ekonomi terbesar kedua zona memiliki defisit. Pada bulan September yang tercatat sebesar € 4700000000. Sebuah pemerasan kecil menjadi 4,5 miliar pada kartu sekarang. Perhatikan bahwa pemerintah Perancis yang diterbitkan keseimbangan anggaran pada waktu yang sama dan defisit mungkin di sini juga. French Industrial Production: Rabu, 07:45. Produksi industri di No 2 ekonomi Eropa tetap datar pada bulan September, melanjutkan stagnasi yang sedang berlangsung. Diharapkan untuk mengambil, dengan kenaikan 0,2% pada bulan Oktober. Akhir NFP, diterbitkan awal di Paris, diharapkan untuk mengkonfirmasi 0,2% meremas awalnya dilaporkan. CPI Akhir Jerman: Kamis, 07:00. Penurunan harga minyak sudah mencapai Jerman pada bulan November, dengan tidak ada perubahan harga m / m, dan dengan slide dari Uni Eropa standar y / y HICP menjadi 0,6%. Angka-angka ini kemungkinan akan dikonfirmasi. CPI Perancis: Kamis, 07:45. Harga tetap datar pada bulan Oktober dan sekarang mereka diharapkan untuk memajukan sebesar 0,2%. Masukan ini penting untuk membaca akhir untuk CPI zona euro, yang berdiri di batu tingkat bawah. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Kamis, 09:00. Satu minggu setelah keputusan tersebut, kita mendapatkan informasi rinci dari Bank Sentral Eropa tentang penilaian saat ini dan perkiraan masa depan. Ini akan menarik untuk mendapatkan pengingat bahwa perkiraan diturunkan tidak termasuk jatuhnya harga minyak dan bagaimana khawatir staf ECB. TLTRO 2: Kamis, 10:15. Ini adalah peristiwa penting dalam seminggu. ECB mengumumkan program pinjaman yang ditargetkan: bank mendapatkan uang atas dasar mereka pinjaman ke ekonomi riil. Dua tahapan telah diumumkan. Yang pertama datang pendek dari semua harapan, dengan hanya € 82600000000. Sebuah lebih kuat mengambil up diharapkan sekarang, tetapi tidak mungkin untuk melampaui € 200 miliar. Dalam rangka untuk memajukan relatif cepat menuju ekspansi neraca € 1000000000000 dengan sebelumnya 2011-2012 LTROs dibayar kembali, ECB akan membutuhkan QE, dan ini bisa menambah kontribusi untuk membuka jalan bagi EZ QE. WPI Jerman: Jumat, 07:00. Indeks Harga Grosir belum ukuran lain inflasi pada akhir lebih dalam siklus ekonomi. Setelah penurunan dari 0,6% pada bulan Oktober, naik 0,3% diperkirakan untuk November. Produksi Industri: Jumat, 10:00. Meskipun jumlah semua-Eropa ini dilepaskan setelah orang-orang Jerman dan Perancis, ia masih memiliki kapasitas untuk batu mata uang tunggal. Setelah uang muka 0,6% pada bulan September, naik dari 0,2% kemungkinan. Employment Change: Jumat, 10:00. Ini angka lapangan kerja akhir bisa saja dibayangi kecuali kejutan. Muka 0,2% diharapkan untuk Q3 setelah cetak yang sama di Q2. * Semua waktu adalah GMT EUR / USD Analisis Teknis Euro / dollar mulai minggu dengan upaya pada 1,25 garis yang sangat bulat (disebutkan minggu lalu). Setelah pasangan itu ditolak, itu mulai meluncur lebih rendah, akhirnya mogok ke tanah yang lebih rendah. Tembakan yang lebih tinggi mengirimkannya ke resistance di 1,2450 tapi itu tidak mampu mempertahankan tingkat ini dan akhirnya menutup minggu dekat dengan terendah. chart EUR / USD Hidup: Teknis baris dari atas ke bawah: Kita mulai dari bawah tanah saat ini. 1,27 adalah angka bulat dan juga bekerja sebagai perlawanan terhadap upaya pemulihan. Ini diikuti dengan 1,2660 -. Yang menandai awal dari dukungan uptrend jangka panjang bawah, 1,2570 adalah awal yang rendah terlihat pada Oktober dan sekarang garis perlawanan. Baris berikutnya sangat penting: 1,25, yang merupakan USD / EUR di 0.80. Pasangan ini memiliki berbagai pertempuran di baris ini, dari topside pada bulan Oktober dan dari sisi negatifnya pada bulan Desember. 1,2450 resistensi setelah pasangan mencapai baris ini dalam upaya pemulihan selama Desember. Hal ini diikuti oleh 1,2360, yang bekerja sebagai dukungan lebih dari sekali, termasuk pada bulan November 2014. Ini adalah double bottom pada satu titik. 1,2280 bergabung grafik setelah memberikan dukungan kepada pasangan pada bulan Desember, tapi itu bukan garis yang kuat . 1,2245 menjabat sebagai dukungan beberapa kali di musim panas itu, dan 1,2170 adalah "bahu" dalam inverse H & S pola sekitar waktu yang sama. Baris terakhir adalah 2.012 rendah 1,2040. Bahkan lebih rendah, rendah pasca krisis 1,1875 harus diawasi, serta 1,17, yang merupakan nilai peluncuran pasangan pada tahun 1999. downtrend resistance dihormati Sebagai garis hitam tebal menunjukkan, pasangan ini diperdagangkan di bawah resistensi downtrend sejak pertengahan Oktober. Baris ini harus diawasi dalam upaya pemulihan. Saya tetap bearish pada EUR / USD Sementara ECB tidak terburu-buru untuk tindakan sekarang, jelas bahwa QE sedang diseduh di markas ECB. Prakiraan inflasi saat ini menunjukkan bahwa ECB jatuh pendek dari mandat tunggal dari 2% atau "sedikit di bawah" inflasi, dan bahkan ramalan ini sudah ketinggalan jaman. The TLTRO bisa menjadi paku di peti mati dengan menunjukkan bahwa ECB tidak memiliki pilihan lain selain untuk memanfaatkan pasar obligasi negara jika ingin memperluas neracanya. Di sisi lain Atlantik, kami memiliki melaporkan pekerjaan yang sangat baik dan beberapa inflasi upah. Sementara benjolan up mungkin satu off, bahkan kembali ke kemajuan pekerjaan sebelumnya membuat The Fed tegas di jalur untuk mengencangkan, dan itulah arah yang berlawanan bahwa Eropa akan. Tampaknya tidak mungkin bahwa kita akan mendapatkan koreksi EUR / USD minggu ini. Dalam podcast terbaru kami, kami melihat pratinjau peristiwa besar bulan Desember, berbicara tentang pentingnya klaim pengangguran, kecelakaan di harga minyak dan GOFO akan negatif: