The long-run relationships between

The long-run relationships between three macroeconomic variables (real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), money supply (MS) and price level (CPI)) have been examined for the Sudan
economy using annual data over the period 1960 to 2005.To explore the short-run direction of
causality between GDP, MS and CPI, Granger Causality test has been applied and in order to
investigate the existence of long-run relationship, co-integration analysis has been employed.
The direction of causation between real GDP and prices was found to be uni-directional from
real GDP to CPI without any feedback. Regarding the causal relationship between money and
prices, the analyses suggests that the causation runs from money supply to prices, but price level
does not causes money supply. Finally, there is no causality between real GDP and money
supply in the case of Sudan during the period 1960 – 2005. Further, the co-integration analysis
established that the real GDP, money supply and CPI were found to be co-integrated suggesting
a existence of long-run relationship.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 2:

Hubungan jangka panjang antara tiga variabel makroekonomi (real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), uang beredar (MS) dan tingkat harga (CPI)) telah diperiksa untuk Sudan
ekonomi menggunakan data tahunan selama periode tahun 1960 sampai 2005.To menjelajahi arah jangka pendek dari
kausalitas antara PDB, MS dan CPI, uji Kausalitas Granger telah diterapkan dan untuk
menyelidiki adanya hubungan jangka panjang, analisis co-integrasi telah digunakan.
Arah sebab-akibat antara PDB riil dan harga adalah ditemukan uni-directional dari
PDB nyata untuk CPI tanpa umpan balik. Mengenai hubungan kausal antara uang dan
harga, analisis menunjukkan bahwa penyebab berjalan dari pasokan uang untuk harga, tetapi tingkat harga
tidak menyebabkan pasokan uang. Akhirnya, tidak ada kausalitas antara PDB riil dan uang
pasokan dalam kasus Sudan selama periode 1960 - 2005. Selanjutnya, analisis co-integrasi
menetapkan bahwa GDP riil, uang beredar dan CPI ditemukan untuk menjadi co-terintegrasi menunjukkan
sebuah Adanya hubungan jangka panjang.