It is reasonable to expect episodes

It is reasonable to expect episodes of volatility in global financial markets, especially in
EMEs, when advanced economies begin to normalize monetary policy. Even if the exit is well
managed, some amount of capital
ow reversal from EMEs is likely. Higher bond yields will
trigger portfolio rebalancing, the effects of which could well be amplified in the presence of
market imperfections. Thus, the effects of policy normalization on EMEs will depend on the
extent of their vulnerabilities. It is important to keep in mind that our analysis has abstracted
from such country-specific or pull" factors in order to isolate the impact of U.S. monetary
policy changes. Potential interactions between the Fed's monetary policy and country-specific
macroeconomic factors could exacerbate the impact of a U.S. monetary policy normalization
on capital flows.

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Masuk akal mengharapkan episode volatilitas di pasar keuangan global, terutama dalamEMEs, ketika mulai maju untuk menormalkan kebijakan moneter. Bahkan jika pintu keluar baikdikelola, beberapa jumlah modal ow pembalikan dari EMEs mungkin. Ikatan yang lebih tinggi menghasilkan akanmemicu portofolio rebalancing, yang juga akan diperkuat dari presencepasar ketidaksempurnaan. Dengan demikian, dampak dari kebijakan normalisasi pada EMEs akan tergantung padaTingkat kerentanan mereka. Penting untuk diingat bahwa analisis kami disarikandari negara tertentu atau pull"faktor untuk mengisolasi dampak dari US moneterperubahan kebijakan. Potensi interaksi antara Fed kebijakan moneter dan negara-spesifikfaktor-faktor ekonomi makro dapat memperburuk dampak dari US kebijakan moneter normalisasipada arus modal.