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Bahasa Indonesia) 1:
[Salinan]Disalin!
Both pricing-to-market and a home bias in consumption affect the terms of trade via theirimpact on the exchange rate. However, the direction of the terms of trade response exclusivelydepends on the degree of PTM. From a foreign perspective the short run exchange rate depreciates.Then, the foreign terms of trade improve as long as more than half of the goods arepriced to market. With s = 0:5 the terms of trade remain unaffected, while s < 0:5 yields aworsening. Thus, when purchasing power parity holds, i.e. s = 0, the foreign terms of tradedeteriorate following an unanticipated permanent fiscal shock.23 Therefore, a higher degree ofPTM has a positive impact on overall foreign welfare via the terms of trade. When assessingthe quantitative relevance of the terms of trade effect one has to take into account the implicationsof a possible home bias in consumption. A higher home bias implies less integrationof goods markets, i.e. the importance of relative price changes in international trade declines.On account of this, a home bias in consumption mitigates the respective terms of trade effects.The second major short run channel of transmission is the expenditure switching effectassociated with the appreciation of the exchange rate. The international structure of productionhinges primarily on relative prices.24 As the relative price of foreign goods falls, foreign production is stimulated while domestic production is shortened. Abstracting from terms oftrade changes, expenditure switching has a positive effect on foreign welfare. As for the pricingbehavior of producers, PTM limits the expenditure switching effect and reduces foreign welfarebecause less goods are subject to price changes originating in exchange rate movements.If s = 1, there are no changes in short run relative prices at all and foreign and domestic productionremain unchanged. From the short run output equations (39) and (40) it follows thata stronger home bias in consumption also reduces the expenditure switching effect because ofthe diminished importance of imports in the consumption index.Hence, pricing to market has opposing effects on the terms of trade and expenditure switching.For s = 1, there is a strong positive terms of trade effect and no expenditure switching.Moving towards s = 0, the terms of trade continuously deteriorate while expenditure switchingtowards foreign production becomes more and more pronounced. All in all, the adverseevolution of the terms of trade dominates the positive expenditure switching effect.
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