Health risks of climate change: act

Health risks of climate change: act now or pay later

Link dokumen ProQuest
Abstrak: The effects of climate change on humanity under such high-end emission scenarios are difficult to
estimate. No epidemiology is possible, models cannot be validated, and baseline world health and
socioeconomic conditions that far into the future are a matter close to conjecture.
Teks lengkap: There is growing scientific consensus that climate change is happening, is largely human
induced, and will have serious consequences for human health. The impact of climate change on global health
is probably not yet large, compared with major risk factors, but will become greater later in this century,
especially if the world follows one of the so-called high-end emission pathways, such as Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8·5, outlined in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth
Assessment Report. 1,2
This emission pathway assumes that present trends of relatively unrestrained use of fossil fuels and high
population growth will continue. According to this emission pathway, by 2100 the global average temperature
will probably be more than 4°C above preindustrial levels ( figure ), with higher average temperatures over land.
Inertia in climate systems would mean that projected global temperatures would continue to rise for several
hundred years; the mean estimate for this emission pathway in 2300 would be at least 8°C above preindustrial
levels. Long-term global average warming of 12°C or more is possible from unconstrained fossil fuel burning.
An increase of 12°C in global average temperature would create conditions in which physiological limits for
outdoor activity would be reached during certain times of the year in many heavily populated parts of the world.
3
One study estimates that under RCP 8·5 there would be about a 40% reduction in global labour capacity
during the hottest months by 2100.4
The effects of climate change on humanity under such high-end emission scenarios are difficult to estimate. No
epidemiology is possible, models cannot be validated, and baseline world health and socioeconomic conditions
that far into the future are a matter close to conjecture. However, such extreme temperature trends might cross
what has been called the "afterlife" threshold--ie, where the impact on humanity is so great as to be a
discontinuity in the long-term progression of humanity. 5
The climate implications of different emission trajectories will not strongly diverge until the middle of the 21st
century, whatever progress is achieved in the next few decades in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.
Therefore, the near-term and medium-term (up to about 2050) is a time to promote and fund adaptation
measures that will reduce the damage to health caused by climate change, to which the world is already
committed. Society also needs to prepare for the possibility of more serious changes later in the century. For
example, in the next 20-30 years, net global food production might be maintained as a result of increased crop
yields in cooler, high latitudes. However, continued warming after 2050 would adversely affect crop yields in
most parts of the world, at a time when demand for food will be rising strongly due to projected population
growth and economic development. 6
Both a high absolute level and a rapid rate of global climate change will severely test biological and social
mechanisms for adaptation, with limits to adaptation becoming increasingly evident. Examples range from
emergency preparedness in the face of shortening return periods after potentially catastrophic floods, to
saltwater intrusion into freshwater lenses in small islands which would potentially compromise water quality to
such an extent that migration might be the only option. 7
Furthermore, limits to adaptation will arise when
hazards associated with a changing climate interact with inappropriate development pathways--eg, where
building occurs on flood plains. Adaptation limits might also occur when health systems fail to proactively design
and implement adaptation actions needed to address a particular health risk.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

Risiko kesehatan perubahan iklim: bertindak sekarang atau membayar nanti Link dokumen ProQuestAbstrak: Efek dari perubahan iklim pada kemanusiaan di bawah emisi seperti high-end skenario sulitperkiraan. Epidemiologi tidak dimungkinkan, model tidak dapat divalidasi, dan dasar dunia kesehatan dankondisi sosial ekonomi yang jauh ke masa depan adalah masalah dekat untuk menduga. Teks lengkap: ada tumbuh ilmiah konsensus bahwa perubahan iklim yang terjadi, sebagian besar manusiadisebabkan, dan akan memiliki konsekuensi serius bagi kesehatan manusia. Dampak iklim mengubah kesehatan globalmungkin belum besar, dibandingkan dengan faktor-faktor risiko besar, tapi akan menjadi lebih besar kemudian dalam abad ini,terutama jika dunia mengikuti salah satu jalur disebut high-end emisi, seperti perwakilanKonsentrasi 8·5 jalur (RCP), diuraikan dalam Panel Antarpemerintah PBB tentang perubahan iklim (IPCC) kelimaLaporan penilaian. 1,2Jalur emisi ini mengasumsikan yang hadir tren relatif tak terkendali penggunaan bahan bakar fosil dan tinggipertumbuhan penduduk akan terus. Menurut jalur emisi ini, 2100 rata-rata suhu globalmungkin akan lebih dari 4° C di atas tingkat praindustri (gambar), dengan suhu rata-rata yang lebih tinggi atas tanah.Inersia dalam sistem iklim akan berarti bahwa diproyeksikan suhu global akan terus meningkat untuk beberapaseratus tahun; perkiraan rata-rata untuk jalur emisi ini di 2300 akan setidaknya 8° C di atas praindustrilevels. Long-term global average warming of 12°C or more is possible from unconstrained fossil fuel burning.An increase of 12°C in global average temperature would create conditions in which physiological limits foroutdoor activity would be reached during certain times of the year in many heavily populated parts of the world.3 One study estimates that under RCP 8·5 there would be about a 40% reduction in global labour capacityduring the hottest months by 2100.4The effects of climate change on humanity under such high-end emission scenarios are difficult to estimate. Noepidemiology is possible, models cannot be validated, and baseline world health and socioeconomic conditionsthat far into the future are a matter close to conjecture. However, such extreme temperature trends might crosswhat has been called the "afterlife" threshold--ie, where the impact on humanity is so great as to be adiscontinuity in the long-term progression of humanity. 5The climate implications of different emission trajectories will not strongly diverge until the middle of the 21stcentury, whatever progress is achieved in the next few decades in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.Therefore, the near-term and medium-term (up to about 2050) is a time to promote and fund adaptationmeasures that will reduce the damage to health caused by climate change, to which the world is alreadycommitted. Society also needs to prepare for the possibility of more serious changes later in the century. Forexample, in the next 20-30 years, net global food production might be maintained as a result of increased cropyields in cooler, high latitudes. However, continued warming after 2050 would adversely affect crop yields inmost parts of the world, at a time when demand for food will be rising strongly due to projected populationgrowth and economic development. 6Both a high absolute level and a rapid rate of global climate change will severely test biological and socialmechanisms for adaptation, with limits to adaptation becoming increasingly evident. Examples range fromemergency preparedness in the face of shortening return periods after potentially catastrophic floods, tosaltwater intrusion into freshwater lenses in small islands which would potentially compromise water quality tosuch an extent that migration might be the only option. 7 Furthermore, limits to adaptation will arise whenhazards associated with a changing climate interact with inappropriate development pathways--eg, wherebuilding occurs on flood plains. Adaptation limits might also occur when health systems fail to proactively designand implement adaptation actions needed to address a particular health risk.