EUR/USD fell to new lows and could

EUR/USD fell to new lows and could not recover as the dollar stormed on and despite no immediate action from the ECB. The central bank is the star of the upcoming week as well with the TLTRO results, alongside other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Draghi did not deliver QE this time, and adopted a “wait and see” approach, with readiness to act early in 2015. However, his support of the idea, the severe cut in forecasts and the fact that these forecasts did not factor the recent fall in oil prices all show that it is probably a matter of time. Subsequent report imply that a large program is in the works. Apart from that German factory orders shined and PMIs were mixed. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls report was superb with a 321K job gain and finally a bump in wages. This helped push the euro back down to fresh 2 year lows.
Updates:

Dec 9, 16:17: Dollar on pre-Christmas sale – EUR/USD at high resistance, USD/JPY collapses: The sell off of the US dollar extends quite rapidly, and positive data for the US jobs market is just not...
Dec 9, 16:01: US JOLTS rises to 4.834 million – dollar unimpressed: Another positive jobs figure from the US: JOLTS job openings are at 4.834 million. This is marginally better than expected....
Dec 9, 12:10: EUR/USD Set To Break 1.20: Will It Collapse? – SocGen: The common currency lost a lot of ground to the greenback in recent months, in a gradual yet consistent grind...
Dec 9, 11:09: EUR/USD Dec. 9 – Recovering to resistance as Greece subsided for now – JOLTS awaited: EUR/USD is trading well above 1.23, extending the recovery that began yesterday after reaching very low levels. Greece has received an extension...
Dec 9, 9:43: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – Dec. 9 2014: EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.2454 R2 1.2398 R1 1.2357 Pivot 1.2309 S1 1.2260 S2 1.2204 S3 1.2163 EURUSD staged...
Dec 9, 8:29: EUR/USD: Targeting M/T Support; USD/JPY: Buy This Dip – Credit Suisse: The euro and the yen both both managed to recover nicely at the wake of the new week, recovering from the...
Dec 8, 22:56: Greece brings forward presidential elections for December 17th – tense times ahead: The Greek parliament is set to vote on a new president on December 17th in the first of a potential...
Dec 8, 15:19: Global Growth Divergence Dominates Sentiment: The pronounced narratives that have been driving market price action for the latter half of 2014 are at the forefront...
Dec 8, 12:05: 1.22 could provide support in EUR/USD; 1.5580 in GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis: The USD finished the week in a strong manner on Friday after a very good NFP report. We have seen...
Dec 8, 11:30: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY TA, Pivot Points – Dec. 8 2014: EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.2483 R2 1.2379 R1 1.2361 Pivot 1.2316 S1 1.224 S2 1.2194 S3 1.2118 EURUSD continues...
Dec 8, 11:13: EUR/USD Dec. 8 – The only way is down – euro worries, NFP echoes: EUR/USD is trading at new lows around 1.2255 last seen in 2012. The pair was hit hard by the superb jobs...
Dec 8, 10:57: US dollar gains strength: The dollar has retained the firmer tone gained in the wake of the jobs report of Friday, which showed further...
Dec 8, 8:54: EUR/USD – new week, new 2 year lows: There is no rest for the falling euro. The common currency resumed its falls and is trading below Friday’s 1.2270 low...
Dec 8, 8:20: EUR/JPY Likely Heading Towards 148.50: The Euro was seen struggling against the Japanese yen despite the fact that the latter one weakened a lot. The...
Dec 8, 8:17: USD/JPY: Ignore S/T Charts; EUR/USD: Bullish & Bearish Signals – TD: EUR/USD has reached new lows and USD/JPY is reaching high sky levels. Is it time for a pullback in both...
Dec 8, 8:03: EUR/USD: Threatens Additional Price Declines: EURUSD: Having taken back its previous week gains at the end of the week, the pair faces the risk of...

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD December 8 12 2014 technical analysis daily chart euro dollar fundamental outlook and sentiment

Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings: Monday and Tuesday. The ministers of the euro-zone and later the whole EU 28 meet to discuss current affairs. Among the contentious issues we find the French and Italian budgets, which are not consistent with the EU guidelines, the ongoing tensions with Greece about a potential third bailout the Juncker plan to boost growth, which has raised a few eyebrows about its viability. Any serious effort to boost growth would lift the euro, but this isn’t likely.
German Industrial Production: Monday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s powerhouse enjoyed elevated factory orders in October, and industrial output could follow, even if expectations stand at only +0.2% against 1.4% in September.
Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This wide survey of 2800 of analysts and investors further deteriorated with a score of -11.9 points in November. An improvement to -9.9 is expected now. Note that the negative number reflects pessimism, which accompanies us for already three months.
German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany enjoys a very wide surplus and this keeps the euro bid. This is due to its vast exports. The last figure stood on +18.1 billion in September. A small advance to 18.5 billion is predicted.
French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. The zone’s second largest economy has a deficit. In September it stood at 4.7 billion euros. A small squeeze to 4.5 billion is on the cards now. Note that the French government published its budget balance at the same time and a deficit is likely here as well.
French Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:45. Industrial output in Europe’s No. 2 economy remained flat in September, continuing the ongoing stagnation. It is expected to pick up, with a rise of 0.2% in October. Final NFP, published earlier in Paris, is expected to confirm the 0.2% squeeze originally reported.
German Final CPI: Thursday, 7:00. The drop in oil prices already reached Germany in November, with no change in m/m prices, and with a slide of the EU standard y/y HICP to 0.6%. These numbers will likely be confirmed.
French CPI: Thursday, 7:45. Prices remained flat in October and now they are expected to advance by 0.2%. This input is important for the final read for the euro-zone CPI, which stands at rock bottom levels.
ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. One week after the decision, we get detailed information from the European Central Bank about its current assessment and future forecasts. It will be interesting to get a reminder that the downgraded forecasts do not include the recent fall in oil prices and how worried the ECB staff is.
TLTRO 2: Thursday, 10:15. This is the key event of the week. The ECB announced a program of targeted loans: banks get the money on the basis of them lending it to the real economy. Two tranches have been announced. The first one came short of all expectations, with only €82.6 billion. A more robust take up is expected now, but it is unlikely to surpass €200 billion. In order to advance relatively quickly towards a balance sheet expansion of €1 trillion with the previous 2011-2012 LTROs being paid back, the ECB would need QE, and this could add contribute to paving the way for EZ QE.
German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index is yet another measure of inflation at the deeper end of the economic cycle. After a drop of 0.6% in October, a rise of 0.3% is forecast for November.
Industrial Production: Friday, 10:00. While this all-European figure is released after the German and French ones, it still has the capacity to rock the single currency. After an advance of 0.6% in September, a rise of 0.2% is likely.
Employment Change: Friday, 10:00. This late employment figure could well be overshadowed unless it surprises. An advance of 0.2% is expected for Q3 after the same print in Q2.

* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar started the week with an attempt on the very round 1.25 line (mentioned last week). After the pair was rejected, it began sliding lower, eventually breaking down to lower ground. A shot higher sent it to resistance at 1.2450 but it was unable to maintain these levels and it eventually closes the week close to the lows.

Live chart of EUR/USD:


Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from lower ground this time. 1.27 is a round number and also worked as resistance to a recovery attempt. This is followed by 1.2660 – which marks the beginning of long term uptrend support.

Below, 1.2570 is the initial low seen in October and now a line of resistance. The next line is critical: of 1.25, which is USD/EUR at 0.80. The pair had various battles around this line, from the topside in October and from the downside in December.

1.2450 is resistance after the pair reached this line in a recovery attempt during December. It is followed by 1.2360, which worked as support more than once, including in November 2014. It was a double bottom at one point.

1.2280 joins the chart after it provided support to the pair in December, but it isn’t a strong line. 1.2245 served as support several times in that summer, and 1.2170 was the “shoulder” in the inverse H&S pattern around the same time. The last line is the 2012 low of 1.2040.

Even lower, the post crisis low of 1.1875 should be watched, as well as 1.17, which was the launch value of the pair in 1999.

Downtrend resistance well respected

As the thick black line shows, the pair is trading under downtrend resistance since mid October. This line should be watched in recovery attempts.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD

While the ECB didn’t rush to action now, it is clear that QE is being brewed in the ECB headquarters. Current inflation forecasts show that the ECB is falling short of its single mandate of 2% or “a bit belo

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

EUR/USD fell to new lows and could not recover as the dollar stormed on and despite no immediate action from the ECB. The central bank is the star of the upcoming week as well with the TLTRO results, alongside other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.Draghi did not deliver QE this time, and adopted a “wait and see” approach, with readiness to act early in 2015. However, his support of the idea, the severe cut in forecasts and the fact that these forecasts did not factor the recent fall in oil prices all show that it is probably a matter of time. Subsequent report imply that a large program is in the works. Apart from that German factory orders shined and PMIs were mixed. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls report was superb with a 321K job gain and finally a bump in wages. This helped push the euro back down to fresh 2 year lows.Updates: Dec 9, 16:17: Dollar on pre-Christmas sale – EUR/USD at high resistance, USD/JPY collapses: The sell off of the US dollar extends quite rapidly, and positive data for the US jobs market is just not... Dec 9, 16:01: US JOLTS rises to 4.834 million – dollar unimpressed: Another positive jobs figure from the US: JOLTS job openings are at 4.834 million. This is marginally better than expected.... Dec 9, 12:10: EUR/USD Set To Break 1.20: Will It Collapse? – SocGen: The common currency lost a lot of ground to the greenback in recent months, in a gradual yet consistent grind... Dec 9, 11:09: EUR/USD Dec. 9 – Recovering to resistance as Greece subsided for now – JOLTS awaited: EUR/USD is trading well above 1.23, extending the recovery that began yesterday after reaching very low levels. Greece has received an extension... Dec 9, 9:43: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD Pivot Points, TA – Dec. 9 2014: EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.2454 R2 1.2398 R1 1.2357 Pivot 1.2309 S1 1.2260 S2 1.2204 S3 1.2163 EURUSD staged... Dec 9, 8:29: EUR/USD: Targeting M/T Support; USD/JPY: Buy This Dip – Credit Suisse: The euro and the yen both both managed to recover nicely at the wake of the new week, recovering from the... Dec 8, 22:56: Greece brings forward presidential elections for December 17th – tense times ahead: The Greek parliament is set to vote on a new president on December 17th in the first of a potential... Dec 8, 15:19: Global Growth Divergence Dominates Sentiment: The pronounced narratives that have been driving market price action for the latter half of 2014 are at the forefront... Dec 8, 12:05: 1.22 could provide support in EUR/USD; 1.5580 in GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis: The USD finished the week in a strong manner on Friday after a very good NFP report. We have seen... Dec 8, 11:30: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY TA, Pivot Points – Dec. 8 2014: EURUSD Daily Pivots R3 1.2483 R2 1.2379 R1 1.2361 Pivot 1.2316 S1 1.224 S2 1.2194 S3 1.2118 EURUSD continues... Dec 8, 11:13: EUR/USD Dec. 8 – The only way is down – euro worries, NFP echoes: EUR/USD is trading at new lows around 1.2255 last seen in 2012. The pair was hit hard by the superb jobs... Dec 8, 10:57: US dollar gains strength: The dollar has retained the firmer tone gained in the wake of the jobs report of Friday, which showed further... Dec 8, 8:54: EUR/USD – new week, new 2 year lows: There is no rest for the falling euro. The common currency resumed its falls and is trading below Friday’s 1.2270 low... Dec 8, 8:20: EUR/JPY Likely Heading Towards 148.50: The Euro was seen struggling against the Japanese yen despite the fact that the latter one weakened a lot. The... Dec 8, 8:17: USD/JPY: Ignore S/T Charts; EUR/USD: Bullish & Bearish Signals – TD: EUR/USD has reached new lows and USD/JPY is reaching high sky levels. Is it time for a pullback in both... Dec 8, 8:03: EUR/USD: Threatens Additional Price Declines: EURUSD: Having taken back its previous week gains at the end of the week, the pair faces the risk of...EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:EUR USD December 8 12 2014 technical analysis daily chart euro dollar fundamental outlook and sentiment Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings: Monday and Tuesday. The ministers of the euro-zone and later the whole EU 28 meet to discuss current affairs. Among the contentious issues we find the French and Italian budgets, which are not consistent with the EU guidelines, the ongoing tensions with Greece about a potential third bailout the Juncker plan to boost growth, which has raised a few eyebrows about its viability. Any serious effort to boost growth would lift the euro, but this isn’t likely. German Industrial Production: Monday, 7:00. The euro-zone’s powerhouse enjoyed elevated factory orders in October, and industrial output could follow, even if expectations stand at only +0.2% against 1.4% in September. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. This wide survey of 2800 of analysts and investors further deteriorated with a score of -11.9 points in November. An improvement to -9.9 is expected now. Note that the negative number reflects pessimism, which accompanies us for already three months. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany enjoys a very wide surplus and this keeps the euro bid. This is due to its vast exports. The last figure stood on +18.1 billion in September. A small advance to 18.5 billion is predicted. French Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:45. The zone’s second largest economy has a deficit. In September it stood at 4.7 billion euros. A small squeeze to 4.5 billion is on the cards now. Note that the French government published its budget balance at the same time and a deficit is likely here as well. Produksi industri Perancis: Rabu, 7:45. Output industri di Eropa No. 2 ekonomi tetap datar pada bulan September, terus berkelanjutan stagnasi. Diharapkan untuk mengambil, dengan munculnya 0,2% di bulan Oktober. Akhir NFP, diterbitkan sebelumnya di Paris, diharapkan untuk mengkonfirmasi pemerasan 0,2% awalnya dilaporkan. CPI akhir Jerman: Kamis, 7:00. Penurunan harga minyak telah mencapai Jerman pada bulan November, dengan tidak ada perubahan dalam harga m/m, dan dengan slide EU standar y/y HICP 0.6%. Angka-angka ini mungkin akan dikonfirmasi. CPI Perancis: Kamis, 7:45. Harga tetap datar pada bulan Oktober dan sekarang mereka diharapkan untuk memajukan dengan 0,2%. Masukan ini penting untuk membaca akhir untuk CPI zona euro, yang berdiri di tingkat terendah. ECB buletin bulanan: Kamis, 9:00. Satu minggu setelah keputusan, kita mendapatkan informasi rinci dari Bank Sentral Eropa tentang penilaian saat ini dan ramalan masa depan. Ini akan menarik untuk mendapatkan pengingat bahwa perkiraan diperlemah tidak termasuk hari musim gugur di harga minyak dan bagaimana khawatir ECB staf. TLTRO 2: Thursday, 10:15. This is the key event of the week. The ECB announced a program of targeted loans: banks get the money on the basis of them lending it to the real economy. Two tranches have been announced. The first one came short of all expectations, with only €82.6 billion. A more robust take up is expected now, but it is unlikely to surpass €200 billion. In order to advance relatively quickly towards a balance sheet expansion of €1 trillion with the previous 2011-2012 LTROs being paid back, the ECB would need QE, and this could add contribute to paving the way for EZ QE. German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index is yet another measure of inflation at the deeper end of the economic cycle. After a drop of 0.6% in October, a rise of 0.3% is forecast for November. Industrial Production: Friday, 10:00. While this all-European figure is released after the German and French ones, it still has the capacity to rock the single currency. After an advance of 0.6% in September, a rise of 0.2% is likely. Employment Change: Friday, 10:00. This late employment figure could well be overshadowed unless it surprises. An advance of 0.2% is expected for Q3 after the same print in Q2.* All times are GMTEUR/USD Technical AnalysisEuro/dollar started the week with an attempt on the very round 1.25 line (mentioned last week). After the pair was rejected, it began sliding lower, eventually breaking down to lower ground. A shot higher sent it to resistance at 1.2450 but it was unable to maintain these levels and it eventually closes the week close to the lows.Live chart of EUR/USD:Technical lines from top to bottom:We start from lower ground this time. 1.27 is a round number and also worked as resistance to a recovery attempt. This is followed by 1.2660 – which marks the beginning of long term uptrend support.Below, 1.2570 is the initial low seen in October and now a line of resistance. The next line is critical: of 1.25, which is USD/EUR at 0.80. The pair had various battles around this line, from the topside in October and from the downside in December.1.2450 is resistance after the pair reached this line in a recovery attempt during December. It is followed by 1.2360, which worked as support more than once, including in November 2014. It was a double bottom at one point.1.2280 joins the chart after it provided support to the pair in December, but it isn’t a strong line. 1.2245 served as support several times in that summer, and 1.2170 was the “shoulder” in the inverse H&S pattern around the same time. The last line is the 2012 low of 1.2040.Even lower, the post crisis low of 1.1875 should be watched, as well as 1.17, which was the launch value of the pair in 1999.Kecenderungan untuk menurun perlawanan dihormatiSebagai menunjukkan garis hitam tebal, pasangan adalah perdagangan di bawah downtrend perlawanan sejak pertengahan Oktober. Baris ini harus diawasi dalam upaya pemulihan.Saya tetap bearish pada EUR/USDSementara ECB tidak terburu-buru untuk bertindak sekarang, itu jelas bahwa QE sedang diseduh di markas ECB. Prakiraan inflasi saat ini menunjukkan bahwa ECB jatuh pendek mandatnya tunggal 2% atau "sedikit belo