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[Salinan]Disalin!
US Dollar: Bullish. We believe the Fed will be tightening sooner and more than the market is expecting. This underscores our bullish USD outlook, especially against currencies where we expect the central bank to ease further.
Euro: Bearish. We recommend short positioning in EURUSD and selective EUR-EM crosses. We expect the ECB to strengthen its active balance sheet management language, aiming for a 1tn expansion in assets. The ensuing crowding out of private investment might drive a reversal of the portfolio inflow surge of the past two years.
Japanese Yen: Bearish. The combination of an election, additional BoJ easing and anticipated GPIF flows should keep the yen under pressure. We believe owning USDJPY vol is a good expression of this view.
UK Sterling: Bearish. We look for GBPUSD to weaken. Market expectations for the first BOE hike have already pushed out into H2 2015. Any further moderation in data momentum and inflation further undermines the potential for a hike in 2015.
Australian Dollar: Bearish. We expect commodity prices to weaken further and believe that the upcoming overhaul of Australian financial regulation could add downside risks to AUD that markets are not be fully pricing in. As such we are AUD bears.
NZ Dollar: Bearish. Dairy prices have remained weak, reinforcing expectation for the RBNZ to stay on hold into 2H 2015, if not later.
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