Providing an early glimpse at summe

Providing an early glimpse at summer-quarter consumer spending activity, the Census Bureau's Advance Report on Retail and Food Services Sales in July will be the marquee statistical event of the week. Increased spending across a wide variety of retail outlets and restaurants likely propelled headline purchases one percentage point higher during the reference period, following a surprising 0.3% contraction in the previous month. Of particular importance, retail control - the portion of the upcoming release used by government statisticians to estimate consumer goods purchases - probably climbed by 0.8% - the strongest gain in four months.

With consumers' outlays on services expected to continue apace during the reference period, nominal personal consumption expenditures (PCE) likely expanded by 0.6%, triple June's reported rise. Net of forecasted hikes in retail goods and services costs last month, real PCE likely increased by 0.4%, placing July's inflation-adjusted spending level 2.1% annualized above the April-June average, after a 2.9% Q2 gain.

"Our projection's would be consistent with a further reacceleration in GDP growth during the summer and a liftoff in administered rates at the Federal Open Market Committee's September 16-17 meeting", says Societe Generale.

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Memberikan sekilas awal di musim panas kuartal aktivitas belanja konsumen, Biro Sensus Muka Laporan Penjualan Ritel dan Jasa Makanan di bulan Juli akan menjadi acara statistik tenda minggu. Peningkatan belanja di berbagai gerai ritel dan restoran cenderung mendorong pembelian headline satu persen lebih tinggi selama periode referensi, menyusul mengejutkan 0,3% kontraksi pada bulan sebelumnya. Yang paling penting, kontrol ritel - bagian dari peluncuran digunakan oleh ahli statistik pemerintah untuk memperkirakan pembelian barang-barang konsumen - mungkin naik 0,8% - kenaikan terkuat dalam empat bulan. Dengan pengeluaran konsumen pada layanan diharapkan terus berlanjut selama periode referensi , pengeluaran nominal pribadi konsumsi (PCE) mungkin diperluas dengan 0,6%, tiga bulan Juni dilaporkan meningkat. Bersih kenaikan diperkirakan barang dan jasa ritel biaya bulan lalu, PCE nyata kemungkinan meningkat sebesar 0,4%, menempatkan disesuaikan dengan inflasi tingkat pengeluaran bulan Juli 2,1% tahunan di atas rata-rata April-Juni, setelah naik Q2 2,9%. "Proyeksi kami akan menjadi konsisten dengan percepatan ulang lebih lanjut dalam pertumbuhan PDB selama musim panas dan lepas landas di tingkat diberikan pada September 16-17 pertemuan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal ", kata Societe Generale.