In a number of countries it is thou

In a number of countries it is thought that the existing distribution of' resources within (tic education system works to the unfair advantage of certain social or racial groups. A more equitable distribution and a more equitable balance are being sought, notably for the benefit of underprivileged groups who fall victim to school failure and are at greater risk of being unemployed, and of adults with low educational attainments for whom it is important to give a second chance, as exemplified by the Norwegian law on adult education.
This redistribution of funds has led to re-thinking about student aid and grants. Several countries are planning to extend the kind of assistance enjoyed by post¬secondary students to pupils in upper secondary education. Furthermore, if adults are to return to, and benefit from, the education system, they must be able to compensate for foregone earnings and to have better opportunities for educational leave.
A highly controversial question is whether education and training costs should be distributed differently among enterprises, individuals and the public sector (and within this last among the central, regional and local authorities), Modification of the rules governing the division of costs between taxpayers and consumers is envisaged differently by different countries, varying according to their systems of funding. By way of example, some of the factors raised in the debate are the following:
i) at the ievel of compulsory schooling, the principle of public funding is not questioned. The argument concerns the links between methods of funding and political objectives, together with the possibility of equalising resources. Efforts are being made, regardless of the centralized nature of funding, to equalise the level of services or their result rather than to equalise only the level of resources in schools and geographical zones by making extra funds available to groups with special educational needs making extra funds available to groups with special educational needs
ii) Within the public sector encourge greater participation by parent and local communities is not necessarily accompanied by financial decentralisation
iii) but it implies the possibility of utilising community resources. Similarly, local financing does not necessarily favour private schools. State funding of the private sector does not have the effect of reducing differences between public and private schools and it poses the problem of freedom of choice for parents;
iv) ill) at the higher education level, a number of surveys have shown an in
compatibility between the derivation of funds from general taxation. and the
ill-balanced way in which use is made of the facilities as between social
economic classes. But no country has yet taken action to alter the system;
iv) during recent years new mechanisms for financing vocational education
have been elaborated with a view to encouraging enterprises to increase
their training provision or, in certain cases, to introduce on-the-job training
rather than resort to outside training institutions and thus to retain the work
contract link unbroken. Since these initiatives have raised the cost of non
salaried personnel, it may be supposed that in the medium term govern
ments will tend to transfer responsibility for a larger share of these costs to
the community, either by taking direct charge of them or by ensuring em
ployers of a degree of compensation through fiscal measures or subsidies

PROSPECTIVE TRENDS IN PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
These trends can be plotted from the few national or international forecasts available. Such forecasts however are only meaningful by reference to the basic assumptions used, and on this account the data need to be supplemented by a discus¬sion of the assumptions which lie behind the trends and the nature of policy decisions concerning such expenditure.
a.1 Available forecasts
Medium-term education expenditure projections are seldom drawn up. However, official forecasts are available for a few countries. The German projections' indicate that from 1970 to 1985 the share of educational expenditure of GNP could rise by some 0.5 per cent in real terms and 2.5 per cent at current prices (from 4.3 in 1970 to 4.7 or 6.8 per cent respectively in 1985, under the medium assumption for GNP growth). For the United Kingdom, the latest White Paper on Public Expenditure proposed cuts after 1976/77 which would cause an absolute decline in expenditure and could reduce education's share of GDP by three-quarters'of a percentage point at constant prices; relative price movements would keep the reduction at current prices to about half a percentage point by 1979/80. The same situation would occur in Canada between 1976/77 and 1978/79 (Table 47). Belgian figures indicate a constant educa¬tion share of GNP between 1970 and 1980 in real terms, but an increase of around I per cent at current prices. The Seventh Plan (1976-1980) in France predicts a stability of educational expenditure in the State budget (around 25.5 per cent) and in the GDP.
Lastly, the OECD Economic Policy Committee, in its study referred to above" looked into possible future trends in educational expenditure and projected the costs of formal education up to 1985. The findings are discussed below.
b) Impact of policy decisions
In the OECD area education accounted on average for 3.6 per cent in 1965 to 4.7 per cent in 1975 of GNP at current prices (i.e. an elasticity of expenditure in rela¬tion to GNP of 1.45 in two-thirds of Member countries). During this period the share of public expenditure in GDP rose on average from 2 1. 1 per cent to 39.9 per cent (an elasticity of 1.28). Future trends in public expenditure on education have to be seen in the context and as part of the already wide-ranging debate on the development of the role and scope of the public sector and of the State"; there are growing pressures for an increased involvement of this sector but also growing concern on political, economic as well as ethical grounds (individual privacy and freedom). Moreover, the trend will be subject to a number of known constraints, whether on tile revenue side (limits to taxable capacity) or the expenditure side (a halt in the reduction— and likely stabilisation—of defence expenditure or the emergence of new social needs).
In any case, the share of GDP (around 1973-75) devoted to education varies considerably between industrialised Member countries (Table 47) i.e. from 3.0 per cent to 6.7 per cent. During the last fifteen years, the larger share of public resources allocated to education and to other " welfare programmes" has been mainly due to the broader scope of such programmes and the greater number of users (partly as a result of demographic trends). In future these factors are likely to be much less important, and the opportunity is therefore available for somewhat slower growth in these public expenditures while still meeting essential needs. On the other hand, a consideration of' possible new initiatives, for example, to improve quality, class sizes and other educational facilities, suggests the possibility that over the ten years from 1975 to 1985 increased spending on these welfare programmes could increase their share of GDP.
To give some idea of what might be the implications of these changes for the evolution of educational expenditures, the Economic Policy Committee of the OECD provided illustrative projections based on three assumptions":
i) a " no policy change" variant, which assumes the maintenance of present trends and policies, with specific allowance for changing demographic factors and relative price changes, but assuming no change in the present level of supply of education. Under these conditions, owing to demographic trends, the share of educational expenditure in GDP would rise b% I per cent in nominal terms; in other words, owing to the steady decrease of relative prices (1.5 per cent), the share would decrease by half a percentage point in real terms;
ii) a second variant assumes that, in addition to demographic and relative price changes, some further modest expansion of student numbers will take place. The share of educational expenditure in GDP would then be steady, rising at the same rate as relative prices (1.5 per cent);
finally, under a third variant, the levels in real resources per student would converge towards the " best situation"— for example, in the case of countries below the average, by reducing class sizes and improving educational facilities. In this situation the share of educational expenditure in GDP may increase by 2.2 per cent at current prices, i.e. by 0.7 per cent in real terms. Moreover " the adoption of a number of educational programmes falling outside the traditional system, such as compensatory and recurrent education as well as a more rapid expansion of pre-primary schooling add another 1 percent of GDP to the cost education over the next 10 years.
Given the kinds of uncertainty discused previously, it is not at all clear which of these scenarios is the most likely. Obviously there will be pressures to upgrade the competensatory programmes, improving theacher training, etc. This applies tp improvements which are assumed to be needed at all levels of the educational system and for which there will be creasing pressures on the part of user, particularly parents and teacher. The debate on this current in many countries.
In the present economic climate such pressures are likely to be resited by those responsible for public budget policies againts a background of competing pressure from other social sector. In any case, it is clear that future public expenditure on education is never simply an extrapolation of past trends and that decisions are taken on the basis of multiple criteria which are not all “technical” of internal to the education system itself.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 1:

In a number of countries it is thought that the existing distribution of' resources within (tic education system works to the unfair advantage of certain social or racial groups. A more equitable distribution and a more equitable balance are being sought, notably for the benefit of underprivileged groups who fall victim to school failure and are at greater risk of being unemployed, and of adults with low educational attainments for whom it is important to give a second chance, as exemplified by the Norwegian law on adult education.This redistribution of funds has led to re-thinking about student aid and grants. Several countries are planning to extend the kind of assistance enjoyed by post¬secondary students to pupils in upper secondary education. Furthermore, if adults are to return to, and benefit from, the education system, they must be able to compensate for foregone earnings and to have better opportunities for educational leave.A highly controversial question is whether education and training costs should be distributed differently among enterprises, individuals and the public sector (and within this last among the central, regional and local authorities), Modification of the rules governing the division of costs between taxpayers and consumers is envisaged differently by different countries, varying according to their systems of funding. By way of example, some of the factors raised in the debate are the following:i) di ievel wajib, prinsip pendanaan publik tidak dipertanyakan. Argumen mengenai hubungan antara metode pendanaan dan tujuan-tujuan politik, bersama dengan kemungkinan tapi sumber daya. Upaya yang dilakukan, terlepas dari sifat terpusat pendanaan, untuk menyamakan tingkat layanan atau hasil daripada untuk menyamakan tingkat sumber daya di sekolah dan zona geografis dengan membuat dana tambahan tersedia untuk kelompok dengan kebutuhan pendidikan khusus yang membuat dana tambahan tersedia untuk kelompok-kelompok dengan kebutuhan pendidikan khususII) dalam sektor publik encourge partisipasi yang lebih besar oleh orang tua dan masyarakat setempat tidak selalu disertai keuangan desentralisasiIII) tetapi ini menyiratkan kemungkinan memanfaatkan sumber daya masyarakat. Demikian pula, pembiayaan lokal tidak selalu mendukung sekolah swasta. Negara pendanaan sektor swasta tidak memiliki efek mengurangi perbedaan antara sekolah negeri dan swasta dan ini menimbulkan masalah kebebasan pilihan untuk orang tua;IV) sakit) di tingkat pendidikan tinggi, jumlah survei telah ditampilkan dalam kompatibilitas antara derivasi dana dari umum perpajakan. dansakit-seimbang cara di mana penggunaan terbuat dari fasilitas antara sosialkelas ekonomi. Tapi tidak ada negara telah belum mengambil tindakan untuk mengubah sistem;IV) selama beberapa tahun terakhir mekanisme baru untuk pembiayaan pendidikan kejuruanhave been elaborated with a view to encouraging enterprises to increasetheir training provision or, in certain cases, to introduce on-the-job trainingrather than resort to outside training institutions and thus to retain the workcontract link unbroken. Since these initiatives have raised the cost of non salaried personnel, it may be supposed that in the medium term govern ments will tend to transfer responsibility for a larger share of these costs tothe community, either by taking direct charge of them or by ensuring em ployers of a degree of compensation through fiscal measures or subsidiesPROSPECTIVE TRENDS IN PUBLIC EXPENDITUREThese trends can be plotted from the few national or international forecasts available. Such forecasts however are only meaningful by reference to the basic assumptions used, and on this account the data need to be supplemented by a discus¬sion of the assumptions which lie behind the trends and the nature of policy decisions concerning such expenditure.a.1 Available forecastsMedium-term education expenditure projections are seldom drawn up. However, official forecasts are available for a few countries. The German projections' indicate that from 1970 to 1985 the share of educational expenditure of GNP could rise by some 0.5 per cent in real terms and 2.5 per cent at current prices (from 4.3 in 1970 to 4.7 or 6.8 per cent respectively in 1985, under the medium assumption for GNP growth). For the United Kingdom, the latest White Paper on Public Expenditure proposed cuts after 1976/77 which would cause an absolute decline in expenditure and could reduce education's share of GDP by three-quarters'of a percentage point at constant prices; relative price movements would keep the reduction at current prices to about half a percentage point by 1979/80. The same situation would occur in Canada between 1976/77 and 1978/79 (Table 47). Belgian figures indicate a constant educa¬tion share of GNP between 1970 and 1980 in real terms, but an increase of around I per cent at current prices. The Seventh Plan (1976-1980) in France predicts a stability of educational expenditure in the State budget (around 25.5 per cent) and in the GDP.Lastly, the OECD Economic Policy Committee, in its study referred to above" looked into possible future trends in educational expenditure and projected the costs of formal education up to 1985. The findings are discussed below.b) Impact of policy decisionsIn the OECD area education accounted on average for 3.6 per cent in 1965 to 4.7 per cent in 1975 of GNP at current prices (i.e. an elasticity of expenditure in rela¬tion to GNP of 1.45 in two-thirds of Member countries). During this period the share of public expenditure in GDP rose on average from 2 1. 1 per cent to 39.9 per cent (an elasticity of 1.28). Future trends in public expenditure on education have to be seen in the context and as part of the already wide-ranging debate on the development of the role and scope of the public sector and of the State"; there are growing pressures for an increased involvement of this sector but also growing concern on political, economic as well as ethical grounds (individual privacy and freedom). Moreover, the trend will be subject to a number of known constraints, whether on tile revenue side (limits to taxable capacity) or the expenditure side (a halt in the reduction— and likely stabilisation—of defence expenditure or the emergence of new social needs).In any case, the share of GDP (around 1973-75) devoted to education varies considerably between industrialised Member countries (Table 47) i.e. from 3.0 per cent to 6.7 per cent. During the last fifteen years, the larger share of public resources allocated to education and to other " welfare programmes" has been mainly due to the broader scope of such programmes and the greater number of users (partly as a result of demographic trends). In future these factors are likely to be much less important, and the opportunity is therefore available for somewhat slower growth in these public expenditures while still meeting essential needs. On the other hand, a consideration of' possible new initiatives, for example, to improve quality, class sizes and other educational facilities, suggests the possibility that over the ten years from 1975 to 1985 increased spending on these welfare programmes could increase their share of GDP.To give some idea of what might be the implications of these changes for the evolution of educational expenditures, the Economic Policy Committee of the OECD provided illustrative projections based on three assumptions":i) a " no policy change" variant, which assumes the maintenance of present trends and policies, with specific allowance for changing demographic factors and relative price changes, but assuming no change in the present level of supply of education. Under these conditions, owing to demographic trends, the share of educational expenditure in GDP would rise b% I per cent in nominal terms; in other words, owing to the steady decrease of relative prices (1.5 per cent), the share would decrease by half a percentage point in real terms;ii) a second variant assumes that, in addition to demographic and relative price changes, some further modest expansion of student numbers will take place. The share of educational expenditure in GDP would then be steady, rising at the same rate as relative prices (1.5 per cent);finally, under a third variant, the levels in real resources per student would converge towards the " best situation"— for example, in the case of countries below the average, by reducing class sizes and improving educational facilities. In this situation the share of educational expenditure in GDP may increase by 2.2 per cent at current prices, i.e. by 0.7 per cent in real terms. Moreover " the adoption of a number of educational programmes falling outside the traditional system, such as compensatory and recurrent education as well as a more rapid expansion of pre-primary schooling add another 1 percent of GDP to the cost education over the next 10 years.Given the kinds of uncertainty discused previously, it is not at all clear which of these scenarios is the most likely. Obviously there will be pressures to upgrade the competensatory programmes, improving theacher training, etc. This applies tp improvements which are assumed to be needed at all levels of the educational system and for which there will be creasing pressures on the part of user, particularly parents and teacher. The debate on this current in many countries.In the present economic climate such pressures are likely to be resited by those responsible for public budget policies againts a background of competing pressure from other social sector. In any case, it is clear that future public expenditure on education is never simply an extrapolation of past trends and that decisions are taken on the basis of multiple criteria which are not all “technical” of internal to the education system itself.