EUR/USD Into ECB: Is QE Priced In?

EUR/USD Into ECB: Is QE Priced In? - Goldman Sachs
03 Dec 2014 22:01 EDT
By eFXnews.com
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Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to stay on hold at its December policy meeting on Thursday (ECB Main Refinancing Rate at 0.05%), and doesn't expect further specific measures to be announced. That said, GS believes that President Draghi will likely reinforce the dovish stance adopted in his Frankfurt speech on November 21.

"Our European economists saw ECB President Draghi’s dovish speech on November 21 as signalling sovereign QE from the ECB, with a magnitude of at least €500bn (and likely closer to €1tn)," GS projects.

In that regard, given the sharp EUR/USD decline since this speech, some market players now believe that QE is already priced in. GS strongly strongly disagrees.

To make its case, GS discusses a round of analytical approaches, all of which are rough benchmarks and are hardly conclusive, such as the QE experience in the US and its impact on the USD.

"That said, they point to substantial downside for EUR/$ from here (we think at least 10 big figures), in line with our 12-month forecast of 1.15," GS argues.

"In our minds, sovereign QE is therefore far from priced in and Euro downside remains our strongest conviction. Much of this view rests on the ECB, although this week's Fed speakers have also been a reminder of the cyclical divergence between the US and the Euro area, which is another factor supporting of our view," GS adds.

Hasil (Bahasa Indonesia) 2:

EUR / USD Ke ECB: Apakah QE di Harga? - Goldman Sachs
3 Desember 2014 22:01 EDT
Oleh eFXnews.com
Berbagi di print Print Berbagi di email Email Goldman Sachs mengharapkan ECB untuk tetap ditahan pada pertemuan kebijakan bulan Desember, Kamis (ECB Utama Refinancing Rate pada 0,05%), dan doesn 't berharap langkah-langkah lebih lanjut yang spesifik akan diumumkan. Yang mengatakan, GS percaya bahwa Presiden Draghi kemungkinan akan memperkuat sikap dovish diadopsi dalam pidato Frankfurt nya pada 21 November. "ekonom Eropa kami melihat pidato dovish Presiden ECB Draghi pada 21 November sebagai sinyal QE berdaulat dari ECB, dengan besaran minimal € 500 miliar (dan mungkin lebih dekat dengan € 1tn), "proyek GS. Dalam hal itu, mengingat tajam EUR / USD menurun sejak pidato ini, beberapa pelaku pasar sekarang percaya bahwa QE sudah harga di. GS sangat sangat tidak setuju. Untuk membuat nya kasus, GS membahas putaran pendekatan analitis, yang semuanya tolok ukur kasar dan hampir tidak konklusif, seperti pengalaman QE di AS dan dampaknya terhadap USD. "Yang mengatakan, mereka menunjuk ke downside besar bagi EUR / $ dari di sini (kita berpikir setidaknya 10 angka besar), sejalan dengan perkiraan 12-bulan kami sebesar 1,15, "GS berpendapat. "Dalam pikiran kita, oleh karena itu berdaulat QE jauh dari harga di Euro dan downside tetap keyakinan terkuat kami. Sebagian besar ini Pandangan bertumpu pada ECB, meskipun speaker Fed minggu ini juga telah mengingatkan perbedaan siklus antara AS dan kawasan Euro, yang merupakan faktor lain yang mendukung pandangan kami, "GS menambahkan.